Friday, March 6, 2009

When Will The Unemployment Rate Go Down?

If it wasn't bad enough that peoples 401k plans have been cut in half(in many cases almost 2/3rds), 20% of peoples mortgages are higher than their actual homes value, the new unemployment numbers came out this morning. I'd like to say the number is a surprise, but it fell in line with what many experts were expecting.

The Unemployment rate rose in February by 0.5% or 651,000 jobs to 8.1%. Unemployment rates have not been this high in over 25 years. The state affected the most has been California, where 40 out of 58 counties in the state are in double digit territory. Even Silicon Valley who's known for its tech jobs has been hit hard with an unemployment rate at 9.4%

So, where exactly are we headed in terms of jobs? No one can say for sure. Earlier this year many experts were keying in on a peak at around 9.3%. I personally think it will go higher then that. The last few months have average a half a percentage point drop, while the jobless claims are expected to keep coming in for at least another 5-6 months at best. My guess is that we will peak with a national unemployment rate around 9.8-10% sometime by the end of this year before things level off. Remember that Unemployment rate is traditionally a lagging indicator which means there will be other signs of the economy beginning to improve before the jobless rate edges downward. Now the only question is, will President Obama's plans work swiftly, and how long will it take for the jobless rate to fall? It may in my opinion remain in the 8-10% range for 12-18 months, which would lead to a very slow recovery all around, including in the housing market, Wall Street, and consumer confidence.

If you are looking for Online Job Opportunities you can find a few offers posted at the various forums on the net including MMG.

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