Google to Launch Venture Capital fund

Not every day do you see a major corporation like Google launch a $100 million dollar venture capital fund that will be used to invest in projects both inside and outside of it's niche. Google, the superpower of the the internet is setting aside a huge sum of money for just its first year of the fund.

Because of Googles reach, as well as their ability to see exactly what millions of people are searching for, and doing each and every day, I feel they have a major advantage in terms of where to invest money for the future. Google's stock is up $10 already primarily because of this announcement. Here are a few of of the possible areas that Google's Venture Capital unit will put more of its weight behind:

• Internet Technology
• Electric Vehicles and Hybrid Vehicles
• Solar and Wind Power
• Disease and other Health Related fields
• Space related

Google announced the following about the Venture Capital Arm:

"It will bring "to bear Google's unique technical expertise and brand" to "find young companies with truly awesome potential and encourage their development into successful businesses."

In my opinion, this is a great move, for both the country as a whole, and especially the Google shareholders. They may soon be owning quite a few smaller companies with promising prospects.

Internet Reviews for Ebooks - Completely Biased

As I was considering buying an e-book/membership earlier today for a group of search engine optimization techniques and ideas, I began searching the net for reviews, figuring that I better not spend that $147 until I make sure I know it will be worth my time and money. So, I went to Google and did a search for the products name and "review". Wow, over 800,000 listings came up. I began then clicking the top listings, figuring they will at least provide me with some incite on if this product/service was worth it.

Guess what? Each and every review I read, one after another was simply a biased, often poorly written, sales pitch with each webmasters affiliate link plastered throughout the supposed review. How can I get a straight forward review from people who actually tried this product? The answer is, it's not easy! Site after site I felt as if I was reading a review for a machine gun written by a 85 year old grandmom who never saw a gun in her life. I would guess that the majority of reviews I found on the first 3 pages of Google were written by people who never even tried the actual product, but instead were simply trying to make a sale, hoping their visitors will click on the affiliate marketing links they have all over the review, and then buy the product. Of course, if they did use the product and it totally sucked, why would they say anything bad about it if their intentions were to try marketing that same product to their website visitors. Note that most e-books do offer a money back guarantee if you jump through enough hoops to get it. This is why legimate complainers usually don't bother wasting their time to tell the world how terrible certain products are.

The one negative review I found was ironically on a site selling an ebook which was in direct competition to the one I was looking for. The lesson learned here is to never trust what you read on the internet, unless you know the actual source behind it. There are peoples names being slandered, companies products being both slandered by competition, and idolized by their affiliates, and lies being published probably every nanosecond.

Economic Data Schedule for Mar 31- April 3

This week we had some very impressive numbers, particularly better then expected data coming in the Existing housing sales, new home sales, and durable goods orders. This in effect has given us the best week in the market since 1987. So, what will next week have in store for the markets and economy in general? I guess we have to wait and see. Below is a list of the data and time/date it will be released next week. I would pay particular attention to the Home Price Index, Pending Home sales (ie, the real estate market), Auto sales, and Unemployment rates. Most are expected to be pretty bad, so any mis-estimations the markets are making to the downside could play a role in keeping this rally going or not.

Mar 31 9:00 AM - S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Mar 31 9:00 AM - S&P/CaseShiler Home Price Index
Mar 31 9:45 AM - Chicago PMI
Apr 1 8:15 AM - ADP Employment Change
Apr 1 10:00 AM - Construction Spending
Apr 1 10:00 AM - ISM Index
Apr 1 10:00 AM - Pending Home Sales
Apr 1 10:30 AM - Crude Inventories
Apr 1 2:00 PM - Auto Sales
Apr 1 2:00 PM - Truck Sales
Apr 2 8:30 AM - Initial Claims
Apr 2 10:00 AM - Factory Orders
Apr 3 8:30 AM - Average Workweek
Apr 3 8:30 AM - Hourly Earnings
Apr 3 8:30 AM - Nonfarm Payrolls
Apr 3 8:30 AM - Unemployment Rate
Apr 3 10:00 AM - ISM Services

Tim Geithner Too Quickly Judged?

The United States Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner took a lot of heat in the early going. First it was the revelation that he incorrectly under reported his taxes. Then it was the fact that he gave a broad and unrevealing first speech to the American Public about his plans to free up credit in the banks. All this led to a quick negative image of Tim Geithner in the media.

In my opinion they jumped on the guy much too early. Afterall he has only been at the head of the Treasury for 2 months now, and unlike taking a position for a corporation, stepping into the financial position liek this for the entire country, and one that is in extreme financial trouble can not be easy. From the very start the media began critacizing him. What did they expect? Did they think he could come up with a plan to reverse all the damage done from years of neglect, in just a few weeks?

Anyway, it now looks like the media has turned the other way. Geithner has revealed a plan that seems quite ingenious if it works like it's supposed to. By leveraging government money he is already attracting numerous investors to buy up the toxic bank assets as an investment, giving the banks more cash to lend out. The transformation he has made in just weeks, image wise, make me wonder if he can turn his public image around so fast, in an organized smart manner, then maybe he can actually turn this financial mess around faster then most experts believe. With Investments already seeming to have an upside, we just may see more then many expect in a economic sense. We'll have to see if Geithner can stay on course or if unknown circumstances throw a wrench into his plans.

Recession Soon to be Over?

Are we At the Tip of the Good-News Market Iceberg?

Just like the last 5-6 months was filled with bad news and no glimmer of hope, it seems as though we may be finally bucking this trend. What will it mean for the economy, the stock markets and struggling families in general?

Monday we had the bank rescue plan emerge, giving hope to the country that the banks will likely be in ok shape after the worst recession in decades. Yesterday we were informed that home sales have risen much more than expected, and today we find out that durable goods orders have increased last month. We also learned today that mortgage applications have risen quite a bit, given that rates are at record lows. This will hopefully allow some refinancing, permitting many homeowners to stay put.

Is this just the tip of the iceberg? Will the good news continue? In my opinion yes! Next Thursday, April 1st, most Americans will begin noticing their paychecks are a bit larger. Why? Because starting that day your taxes deducted from that check will be less, thanks to the stimulus package passed last month. On top of this there is a general sense of optimism in the media whereas just a week or two ago it was months of pessimism. Are we going to wake up in a recovered economy tomorrow? No, but I do think by the end of this year the recession will be over, and starting in early 2010 the unemployment rate will begin to drop.

In the meantime I suggest watching the stock market. I would not be at all surprised to see the Dow in the 9000-9500 range by July or August provided there are no major bouts of bad news beyond what is expected.

Media and the Economy

This post is solely my opinion, however as time goes by I believe it more and more. Is the United States economy directly impacted by the major news stations such as CNN, Fox News, MSNBC? In my opinion they are a major catalyst in both economic downturns and recoveries.

The other day I saw a blog post at Dailykos mentioning that the Dow has fallen over 50% since Fox Business News Channel went live on October 15, 2007. That day, the DOW was at 14,093. Sine then it has plunged all the way down to 6,450. Of course there are major underlying problems with the US economy, and by no means am I blaming it mostly on the major news stations. What I am trying to say is that the major outlets help to invigorate these market swings as well as the economy in general.

The Media Problem
Ok, so you hear on CNN that the Market is down more then any other time since the great depression. They then run online polls suggesting that 45% of Americans believe we are headed towards a situation comparable to the Great Depression. The funny thing is, if you had asked 10 of the top economic scholars in the country the same question, I would guess that not even one of them would agree with the 45% taking that poll. CNN then runs show after show about the economy and how almost half of all Americans think we are headed for the worst economic situation, ever int he history of the US. Such a story can easily scare the crap out of any of us. Small Business's begin cutting costs, banks tighten up credit, ordinary people start spending less, as well as taking their money out of the stock market and into cash, and the economy shrinks even more. It's a seemingly never ending downward spiral propelled by the media which feeds on bad news. So what will get us out of this cycle? Likely it will be a small piece of good news, that the media runs with and blows out of proportion like they did with all the bad news. This will get people optimistic, have them spend more, invest more, and create more good news for the media to report on.

Conclusion On The Media and The Economy
Like I said, the media isn't to blame for the cyclical downturns every economy has. What they are responsible for is possibly making an ordinary economic downturn into something the recession from hell. Over reporting on the wrong stories often lead to irrational market behavior as well as economic and business behavior.

Leading and Lagging Indicators

I thought I'd write a quick post about leading and lagging indicators in the economy. In My opinion the economy is well on it's way to recovery. I posted that we hit a stock bottom a few weeks back and since then the dow is up over 1100 points. Could it fall again? Sure, but recovery is well on it's way.

Leading Indicators
Leading indicators in this situation, indicators which turn up before the general economy, are home sales, the stock market, Index of supplier Deliveries, Interest rate spreads, new orders of consumer goods, real money supply, building permits, average weekly manufacturing hours, and new orders of consumer goods. What these indicators do is show an improving economy usually before the main economy has shown signs of this improvement. In the current economy, many of these are increase, such as money supply, building permits, and the stock market.

Lagging Indicators
Lagging Indicators are economic indicators which usually don't move until after the general economy has moved one way or the other. These include, unemployment rates, ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories, Commercial loans outstanding, Industrial loans,outstanding, The change in labor cost per unit of output, Change in the consumer price index for the service industry, and the average prime interest rate charged by banks. In evaluating an economy, after it's thought recovery, these lagging indicators can often confirm that the economy has in fact recovered.

Indicators are used by a variety of industries to predict the economic environment ahead, as well as compare past and present conditions. Although all the leading indicators have not turned positive, I am still sticking with the idea that we are heading for a recovery, and things will not get much worse, besides some of the lagging indicators which could persist 6 months or so after any recovery begins. This means that things like unemployment rate should start turning around by September or October of this year, while the stock market has already begun it's turnaround.

Making Home Affordable Again

The United states foreclosure problem sure is a mess right now. There are some towns in Florida and California where 1 in every 60 homes are being foreclosed upon. If that doesn't yell "foreclosure crisis" nothing will. So I thought I'd make this blog post about some of the things a homeowner can do to hopefully be able to afford those Mortgage payments.

#1 Go to the New Government Site Makinghomeaffordable.gov
The government, and President Obama have announced this new site which is presented to help United States homeowners afford their mortgage payments. It will teach you everything you need to know in order to Make Your Home affordable. From teaching you how refinancing and restructuring of loans work, to providing you the data of the cheapest rates, resources to tell if you as a home owner are eligible for a restructuring of your loan through Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

#2 Consider refinancing your Mortgage:
Two days ago the Federal reserve announced that they will be buying billions of dollars in US Treasuries. What does this mean for you as a struggling homeowner? It means that the inetrest rates will continue to plummet. Some experts speculate that the Federal Reserve is trying to reduce the average mortgage rate to as low as 4%. That would be as low as it has ever been sicne we have been keeping record. This means if you are in a mortgage which is at a much higher rate, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9% you can refinance and reduce your monthly payments considerably. For every 1% the interest rate goes down on your mortgage, you will be paying $100 per month less per $100,000 loan amount. If you have a loan for $300,000 at a 7% inetrest rate, and refinance to 4%, you would probably save about $900 per month in payments. That is BIG!

#3 Don't over extend yourself
The most obvious, yet most overlooked rule is to live within your means. If you have any question about affording a new home, and the mortgage payments that go with it. Don't buy!

Remember to check out the the Making Home Affordable site in the link above. Also discuss this and all other financial issues at the Personal Finance Forum.

Economic Data List - Next Week

Last week I gave the dates for this weeks key economic data readings, and when they would be announced. I have to say that The data out this week overall was better then expected. Unemployment numbers were not as bad as many experts had expected, The Philly Manufacturing index showed signs of a recovery, New Home start ups were up 22% from last month and The Fed is pumping another $1 Trillion into the economy. Overall, we had a pretty darn good week for being in the midst of the worse recession in 75 years. Acquisition rumors are also on the rise with Google possibly acquiring Expedia, and IBM placing a bid for Sun Microsystems. So what can we expect next week? Here is the list:

- Mar 23 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales
- Mar 25 8:30 AM Durable Goods Orders
- Mar 25 8:30 AM Durables, Ex-Transportation
- Mar 25 10:00 AM New Home Sales
- Mar 25 10:30 AM Crude Inventories
- Mar 26 8:30 AM Initial Claims
- Mar 26 8:30 AM Q4 GDP - Final
- Mar 26 8:30 AM GDP Price Index
- Mar 27 8:30 AM Personal Income
- Mar 27 8:30 AM Personal Spending
- Mar 27 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev

Let's all hope that the numbers are better then expected, and like Ben Bernanke says, we will be out of this recession by years end. Is this a good time to enter the stock market. In my Opinion YES!

Getting Web Site Traffic

I thought I'd write a little post about the three main ways to get traffic to your website. Every webmaster's main goal is traffic. Without traffic, their products won't sell, sites won't grow, and ultimately they are wasting their time. Below are the 3 main ways one can get and keep traffic at a given website.

#1 Search Engine Traffic
Those webmasters who know how to perform search engine optimization on their sites are the ones who get free, targeted traffic for years. SEO is the single most important traffic related action any webmaster can undertake. If you are selling childrens books and your site comes up #1 in Google and other search engines when someone searches for "childrens books" then you are probably going to be very very wealthy in a short period of time. The problem is SEO is not all that easy. There are millions of competing webmasters trying to optimize their sites in the best possible way. You have to compete with these people, and be 2 steps ahead.

#2 Purchased Traffic
You can also Buy Web Site Traffic at fairly cheap rates. Rates can range from $1 to $10 per 1000 unique visitors depending on quality of the traffic and if it is targeted or not. You can also buy traffic via Google Adwords or other advertising platforms. Targeted traffic can certainly be worth the cost. I recommend you order small amounts of traffic and test how well your site is converting that traffic into sales.

#3 Keep Visitors Coming Back to Your Site
If you can hook your visitors after they come to your site once, then you are golden. Maybe you have a interesting blog, or forum which people get addicted to. If they have an incentive to come back to your site to participate in discussions or read your latest posts, they will be that much more likely to buy recommended products from your site.

Although the three above traffic methods are obvious, most webmasters do not understand how important each one is on an individual basis.

Google to Buy Expedia?

For about a month now, rumors have been circulating that Google, the monster web search company, and also the company that allows me to host this blog (they own blogger.com), may be on the prowl to swallow up Expedia.com.

Today, though these rumors have picked up steam. Neither company has returned calls from the top news organizations, but the stock of both Expedia, (EXPE) and Google (GOOG) have gone up considerably. Would this acquisition on Google's part make sense?

Yes! Expedia which currently has a market cap of $2.24 Billion could probably be acquired by Google for around $3 billion, give or take a couple hundred million dollars. Expedia finds the best travel deals on anything from hotels, to airfare, to rental cars, to Cruises, and to travel activities. Their service really is top of the line. Take it from someone who just purchased airline tickets from them a few months back at a rate, which in my opinion was phenominal. Google could take the current setup and work it into their search results. So if someone was to search for "cheap airfare from newyork to La" the Expedia prices would quickly pop up in the actual search results without you even having to visit their site. This is a sure advantage for Google who would be takign advantage of Economies of scope. The two companies are sure complements to one another, and any regulatory concerns will not be a factor. Will the deal go through? I certainly think we will be hearing more about this possible acquisition in the days and weeks ahead. With market values for companies way down, it is an ideal time for larger companies to shop aroudn for cheap acquisitions. Note that Expedia stock is currently trading at about a 70% discount from last years highs.

Feel free to discuss this possible acquisition as well as other stock topics in the Day Trading Forum at Talkgold.

Paid to Click Ad Sites Like ValueBux - Worth it?

Running one of the largest online earner forums for 5 years, I have been able to dissect all sorts of internet programs, schemes, and opportunities quite easily. There are a lot of legitimate programs out there, but many of them are probably not worth ones time.

Paid to click sites such as ValueBux seem to be a waste of time for most of us. After all, who wants to spend time clicking ads for a measly 1.5 cents each? What most people don't realize is the power of referring other users to the service. ValueBux and other programs like it, such as Bux.to, Neobux, etc also pay for each one of your referrals ad clicks. Only those who have a means of building a downline of participating friends, buddies and collegues will suceed at earning any real money.

Now, am I recommending programs like Valuebux? No, I will never recommend a program. It is good to note that other programs similiar to this one have gone under because of poor management, greedy owners, or just simply put, scam artists. With Valuebuxs, however, the only thing you are risking is your time since unlike most similar programs it does not look as if they are sellign upgrades to accounts, which for now is a good sign. Please correct me if I'm wrong about this, as I did not register for an account there.

Conclusion:
If you are looking to earn more then a few extra bucks per week, programs liek these are not really for you, unless of course you have a network of people you can refer. If this is the case, the skies are the limits, but still you will not likely become rich in participating in Paid to click sites.

3 Ways to Lose Stomach Fat

I know this topic isn't the usual economic or stock related blog post, but I had to write an article for something else and figured I'd extend it here, plus everyone wants to lose a little fat on their stomach right? Anyway, here are 3 ways to reduce the amount of fat on ones stomach. (Note that I guest wrote the blog post about how to Lose Stomach Fat at Profilesblog earlier this morning).

#1 Consume a Lower Calorie Food Intake.
The less calories you eat the more your body will burn the fat, as fuel already on your stomach. If you normally eat 2,500 calories per day and maintain your current body weight with that number, then lower it to 2,200 or even 2,000. A 10-15% reduction in calorie intake will lead to your body countering the decrease with fat burning instead.

#2 Eat Less Fat
There are all sorts of low fat, tasty foods you can consume instead of that greasy hamburger, or giant slice of chocolate cake. A lower fat intake will lead to less fat deposits on your body, including your stomach if that's where your genetics usually deposits it first. Some low fat, but good tasting foods include: Lean Steaks, Tuna, Most Vegetables, Low Fat Yogurt, and an array of others.

#3 Stay Away from Simple Carbohydrates
Simple Carbohydrates will quickly spike up your blood sugar, giving you a burst of energy and fullness, then fall down rapidly, leaving you weak and hungry. If you eat complex Carbohydrates you will have a sustained energy level throughout the day and reduce your hunger dramatically.

There are of course much more info related to this topic, but after all this is a finance blog. If you want to read the rest feel free to visit the post I contributed to Andy's Blog at Profilesblog.com abotu Stomach fat reduction.

Week Ahead Filled with Lots of Economic Data

This coming week will be filled with all kinds of goodies (or baddies depending on what the numbers in the data say about the economy). We should get a good glimpse into the state of the economy starting on Monday March 16th and continuing until the end of the week. Will the leading indicators help the Dow continue it's winning streak which is currently at four trading sessions? Or will they show a bleaker picture then we all expected, pushing the back down towards 12 year lows? We will all find out soon enough. Below is a list of the data which will be coming out this week along with the date and time of their releases:

- Empire State Index Monday, Mar. 16 8:30 a.m.
- Industrial Production Monday, Mar. 16 9:15 a.m.
- Capacity Utilization Monday, Mar. 16 9:15 a.m.
- Producer Price Index Tuesday, Mar. 17 8:30 a.m.
- Producer Price Index (Excluding Food & Energy) Tuesday, Mar. 17
- Housing Starts (Millions) Tuesday, Mar. 17 8:30 a.m.
- Consumer Price Index Wednesday, Mar. 18 8:30 a.m.
- Consumer Price Index (Excluding Food & Energy) Wednesday, Mar. 18 8:30 a.m.
- Current Account Balance ($Billions) Wednesday, Mar. 18 10:00 a.m.
- Philadelphia Fed Index Thursday, Mar. 19 10:00 a.m.
- Leading Indicators Index Thursday, Mar. 19 10:00 a.m.

I am particularly interested in seeing the Leading Indicator index, Housing Starts Index, and Industrial Production numbers. I have an inkling that things may in fact look better then most economists have been expecting. If this is the case, then watch the Dow continue it's surge for much of the coming week. Discuss these economic indicators.

Affordable Affiliates

To start, I will never recommend investing into an internet investment program, however I leave it up to you to decide if they are worthy. When I see a new program that is unique I will usually read extensively about it. This new program is called Affordable Affiliates. AffordableAffiliates is an online High Yield Investment opportunity, or so they claim.

The way it works is that you invest an amount between $100 and $500 into the program. The company then uses this money to purchased large collections, and other valuables in bulk to resell them on ebay.com. AffordableAffiliates then will pay you a return based on the profit they make on the sold products. According to the company here is an example of Just how AffordableAffiliates works:

We buy an Item for $10.00 and sell it for $100.00 .
Your initial $10.00 + 10% of the $90 profit is returned to your account for re-investment ($19).
10% or the profit is added to your monthly payout ($9).
5% of the profit is sent to your designated charity ($4.50).
5% of the profit goes to the person who referred you to AAN ($4.50).

I have to say it is refreshing to see an online investment program that actually has a business plan, paying a variable rate depending on it's sales. There are many excited members in the Talkgold AffordableAffiliates Forum. The program excepts both Solid Trust Pay, Wire Transfer, and AlertPay as a form of payment and also payout via the same methods. Paypal has recently closed the AffordableAffiliate becuase they do not allow internet investments to use their service. It will be inetresting to track the items they put up for sale on ebay, and see what kind of returns they will end up offering.

There is mroe information on this Affiliate Program / Hyip Hybrid at the Money Maker Group Affordable Affiliates Forum as well.

The Dow has Hit a Bottom 6440 - My Opinion

That's right I think the Dow Jones Industrial average has finally hit a bottom. I believe that the low it hit on March 9th of this year, around 6,440.00, will be the bottom. From here on out the Dow will not touch or fall below 6440 (In my opinion).

Here are a few reasons why I think the Market has finally bottomed:

#1 Investor Sentiment is at an all time low - You would think that means the markets will continue to slide, however its the opposite. When investors all think the sky is falling, that means they are all out of the market, have sold everything they will have sold, meaning the supply of shares are limited. Even small amounts of neutral or good news will move the markets higher.

#2 Retail Sales are Leveling off - The last 2 months, retail sales have gained, if you don't account for the loss in automobile sales. This is a leading indicator that the markets are about to turn.

#3 Banks are reporting good numbers - That's right, CitiGroup and the other troubled banks have reported that they are profitable this year so far. Although I'm sure more write offs will come, this is a sign that things may be getting better.

#4 Irrational Pessimism - Just like Alan Greenspan claimed there was Irrational Exuberance in the Markets of the early 2000's, today we have the opposite. The world is not coming to an end, yet they are trading like it. The slightest good news will change this, and quickly drive buyers into the market.

As a disclaimer, I am not an expert by any means. These are my own predictions, so you should not be investing your life savings into stocks. Make your own decisions. This blog is here and written on commission for Stock forums

Stimulating Illegal Immigrants?

This topic has received a lot of media attention lately, and of course is a often severely debated topic.

As many of you know the US government has passed a couple stimulus bills over the last 6 months. Much of this money is supposedly being used to stimulate an economy that has been in worse shape than anyone can remember since the Great Depression. How will it stimulate the economy exactly? Mostly by job creation. The last stimulus bill is estimated to create around 2 million jobs for Americans. The debate arose when it was recently estimated that some 300,000+ of these jobs will likely be given to illegal immigrants. That's a staggering number considering most these immigrants will send a large portion of that money back to their home countries, and are not paying even a cent of income taxes on it.

So the question is, what can and what should be done? This is America, the land of opportunity. Does that mean that these people who have built lives here, although illegally should not be helped as well? These same people are benefiting from the US government without giving anything back via income taxes, while the legal citizens are paying taxes from their paycheck each and every week. There are only 2 ways to really approach these situations.

#1 Seek those who have established lives here in the US illegally.
#2 Prevent the leaks that are allowing the immigrants through the borders

In my opinion Option 2 is really the only humane one. Those who have been living in this country illegally for years, establishing themselves, building a place to live, starting a family, should not simply be uprooted. It should have been the responsibility of the government to prevent these peopel from getting here in the first place. Instead of uprooting those already here, the government needs to plug the border holes, and then legalize those who are here illegally so that they can start paying taxes.

I would love to hear your opinions on the situation. Please feel free to chime in at the Talkgold Debate Forum.

Inflation Increase Could be Staggering

While everyone is worrying about their job, their stocks, their mortgage payments and thei rpersonal finances, there is an underlying problem simmering under the scenes. What is it? Inflation.

Inflation is the devaluation of a currency, weakening it's national buying power. Over the last 20 years we have not really had any problems with inflation, with it averaging just 3-4% per year at most. Having said this, the 20 years prior to that was riddled with concerning inflation numbers. Check out this chart to the left showing the inflation rates since 1885.

As you can see in the 70's and 80's Inflation rates were hovering around 10% per year. That means that if a gallon of milk was $1 in 1979, the same gallon of milk was $1.13 in 1980. That might not seem bad, but apply that to every expense one would have had, and you are talking about a decreasing wealth affect in America.

The reason I brought inflation up is because Warren Buffett beleives we may seen things just as bad, if not worse then we did in the 70's and 80's. Why? Because the world economies, especially the US are pouring trillions of dollars into the economy. You can just throw money at a problem and expect it not to eventually devalue the currency. If we were to see rapid inflation I would guess it would be sometime in 2011. The FED can rate interest rates to try and hold back inflation, but will it be enough? Feel free to leave your feedback at Talkgolds Investment Forum.

When Will The Unemployment Rate Go Down?

If it wasn't bad enough that peoples 401k plans have been cut in half(in many cases almost 2/3rds), 20% of peoples mortgages are higher than their actual homes value, the new unemployment numbers came out this morning. I'd like to say the number is a surprise, but it fell in line with what many experts were expecting.

The Unemployment rate rose in February by 0.5% or 651,000 jobs to 8.1%. Unemployment rates have not been this high in over 25 years. The state affected the most has been California, where 40 out of 58 counties in the state are in double digit territory. Even Silicon Valley who's known for its tech jobs has been hit hard with an unemployment rate at 9.4%

So, where exactly are we headed in terms of jobs? No one can say for sure. Earlier this year many experts were keying in on a peak at around 9.3%. I personally think it will go higher then that. The last few months have average a half a percentage point drop, while the jobless claims are expected to keep coming in for at least another 5-6 months at best. My guess is that we will peak with a national unemployment rate around 9.8-10% sometime by the end of this year before things level off. Remember that Unemployment rate is traditionally a lagging indicator which means there will be other signs of the economy beginning to improve before the jobless rate edges downward. Now the only question is, will President Obama's plans work swiftly, and how long will it take for the jobless rate to fall? It may in my opinion remain in the 8-10% range for 12-18 months, which would lead to a very slow recovery all around, including in the housing market, Wall Street, and consumer confidence.

If you are looking for Online Job Opportunities you can find a few offers posted at the various forums on the net including MMG.

Over 11% of Mortages Late Or Foreclosed

Yesterday I reported to you all that 20% of all US mortgages were under water, meaning that the outstanding balance on the loan was greater the homes value it was borrowed against.

Well today even more startling numbers came out. Over 11% of all mortgages in the United States is either involved in a foreclosure, or is at least 1 month late in payment. Those are staggering numbers. That means that 1 in every 10 people who have a mortgage in the country are unable to meet their monthly financial obligation.

President Obama, yesterday, announce details of his mortgage plan to save up to 4 million families from foreclosing on their homes. He better get the ball moving on this or the vicious cycle will never end. The more foreclosures there are, the greater the supply of housing units on the market, thus lowering the price of the homes when they sell. This in turn makes it even more impossible for the homeowners to refinance or sell their hoem to pay off their mortgage. The cycle will continue until the government gets a plan right.

The experts do not expect to see too much inprovement until as late as the end of 2010 (18 months from now). Feel free to give your opinion at the Real Estate Forum on MMG.

Mortgages Under Water - Over 8.3 Million

Yesterday I did an entry about why foreclosures were occurring at such a rapid pace, and who was to be blamed. Today the government released new data showing just how extensive this mortgage crisis really is.

There are currently 8.3 million households in the United States considered "Under water" with their mortgages. This means they owe more money on their homes than the actual asset, the home, is worth. That translates into one in every 5, or 20% of all homeowners with a mortgage owing more money then their homes are worth right now. During the forth quarter of 2008, an average of 230,000 homeowners fell into the negative each month. Experts expect that if the downward trend in home prices continue, dropping just another 5%, than there will be another 2.1 million homeowners going under water as well. Just last year the value of all the homes in the US fell an estimated $2.1 trillion.

There is some good news coming out today though. Obama and his economic team unveiled more details about their home foreclosure rescue plan which looks to restructure loans for homeowners who are under water, but are still paying their mortgages on a monthly basis. The new plan will allow banks to restructure the loans with a lower monthly payment in hopes that the homeowners will be able to afford to pay it off in the long run. In order to stop the vast economic slide the entire world is going through, I believe the first step is to stabalize the housing market which sparked this mess in the first place.

There is some inetresting commentary on the various Credit markets at the Credit and Loans Forum

What is an Economic Depression?

Ever since this financial crisis started 5-6 months ago, we have been hearing the word "depression" thrown around more then ever. So what exactly is an Economic Depression?

When people hear "depression" they think, economic catastrophy, the Great Depression, bank runs, and financial collapse. The thing is, every depression is not the Great Depression. The us had several depressions in it's history, many not even close to as severe as the Great Depression, but since the Great Depression is the last one the country went through, and happens to be by far the worst, we all associate the 2 terms.

An Economic depression is simply a total of a 10% decrease in national Gross Domestic Product in 4 consecutive quarters. In the Great depression the GDP fell by 30% in just 3 years. To put this in comparison, the US GDP for the forth quarter of 2008 fell 1.625% or 6.5% if annualized. So is a depression the end of the world? Economist now give us a 25% chance of hitting Depression status. In my opinion we won't, but if we do, it will likely be short, and not even close to as severe at the early 1930's.

Look for key indicators such as pending home sales, and a slow down in job losses to see if the trend continues or we fall lower. To discuss the possibilities of a depression and other investment topics check out Talkgold Investment Forum

Florida Real Estate. Has it Bottomed?

For those of you who live in Florida you likely know that real estate values have plummeted in the last 2 years. Although the country is in the midst of of one of the worst housing slumps ever, Florida, particularly southwest Florida has seen it worse then the average US region.

The downturn has affected pretty much every class of house, from the large million dollar water front properties, to the 2 bedroom average sized homes.

So, has the market bottomed here in Florida? That depends on who you ask. Some believe that the bottom has almost been hit, but the market will stay stagnant, at the current levels for years to come, while others believe that the economy in general will turn around by the end of this year, leading to a mini housing boom in 2010 and beyond.

What to look for to find an underlying trend? Look for the supply of existing homes in the region to decrease, as foreclosures slow down. If the supply curve can shift downward, and demand can at least stay the same, Prices will gradually start rising. Remember, there is a lot of cash lying around, and ocne things start lookign brighter, both the stock market and housing markets should rebound nicely. You just gotta be patient.

Where can one find out more info on Real Estate Trends? There are a few Real Estate forums I like. Also Google finance can usually tell you the latest news via feeds.