One of the sites I like to look at to get a true feeling of what people expect, weather it is with the economy, sports, politics, etc, is Intrade.com. Basically Intrade is a betting site, that works sort of like the stock market. The higher the share price, the more likely people think an event will happen. There is not better way to get a good accurate feel of a general populations thoughts, than through betting. Polls, and questionairs can be deceiving, as the people taking them do not have an incentive to be honest. With Intrade, people put their money where their mouths are. So, I will take a quick look at some of the states:
According to the bettors at Intrade.com the following is true according to the last trade price at the betting site.
Facebook IPO
14% Chance that FaceBook Will announce an IPO by December 31st, 2009
31% Chance that FaceBook Will announce an IPO by December 31st, 2010
Dow Jones Price Target
88.5% chance the Dow will end at over 6000 on December 31st, 2009
77.5% Chance the Dow will end at over 7000 on December 31st, 2009
30.2% Chance the Dow will end at over 9000 on December 31st, 2009
7.8% Chance the Dow will end at over 11000 on December 31st, 2009
Economic Data
55% Chance the US Unemployment will be Greater than 10.50% by December 31st, 2009
7% Chance the US Unemployment will be Greater than 11.50% by December 31st, 2009
55% Chance the US Recession will end in this Quarter (Quarter 3)
Just thought these numbers were interesting. Take them for what they are.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comment:
I have to say that the information here was the most complete that I found anywhere. I am definitely bookmarking this to come back and express later.
Stocks and investments
Post a Comment