Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Predicting the Stock Market With Bets

One of the sites I like to look at to get a true feeling of what people expect, weather it is with the economy, sports, politics, etc, is Basically Intrade is a betting site, that works sort of like the stock market. The higher the share price, the more likely people think an event will happen. There is not better way to get a good accurate feel of a general populations thoughts, than through betting. Polls, and questionairs can be deceiving, as the people taking them do not have an incentive to be honest. With Intrade, people put their money where their mouths are. So, I will take a quick look at some of the states:

According to the bettors at the following is true according to the last trade price at the betting site.

Facebook IPO
14% Chance that FaceBook Will announce an IPO by December 31st, 2009
31% Chance that FaceBook Will announce an IPO by December 31st, 2010

Dow Jones Price Target
88.5% chance the Dow will end at over 6000 on December 31st, 2009
77.5% Chance the Dow will end at over 7000 on December 31st, 2009
30.2% Chance the Dow will end at over 9000 on December 31st, 2009
7.8% Chance the Dow will end at over 11000 on December 31st, 2009

Economic Data
55% Chance the US Unemployment will be Greater than 10.50% by December 31st, 2009
7% Chance the US Unemployment will be Greater than 11.50% by December 31st, 2009
55% Chance the US Recession will end in this Quarter (Quarter 3)

Just thought these numbers were interesting. Take them for what they are.


Stock Tips said...

Good covered point, lots of people simply put something weired theories

in front of public.But it doesn’t work i think because know one sure how

it will going to happen It looks like just coping ideas which someone has

already written. I found even on popular blogs guest bloggers bring same

theories which I already know. I observed they just try to spice up their

article without knowing what really audience want to read.


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