Sunday, June 14, 2009

3 Possible Scenarios for The Bull Stock Market

Over the last 3 months we have seen the major US markets rise almost 40%. That is an unprecedented increase in stock prices, one that any investor would love to have in a 5 year period, much less only 3 months. Investors however are now asking, "what's next?" Below are 3 arguments and my personal opinion on their likelihoods of happening:

The Market Is Overbought and Sells off for Big Losses, Dow Back to 7000
It is possible that the market has gotten too far ahead of the economy. The markets are usually 6 months ahead of the economy, so right now it's pretty much saying that a recovery will be in the works within 6 months. A 40% gain in only 3 months is staggering, and even if things were looking amazing for the economy such a gain is hard to maintain without some pullback. Could we pull back into the 7000-7500 range for the dow?
I give this a 20% chance of happening.

We level Off but maintain current levels for the next few months?
Even though the market has risen quite a bit, the optimism and good values keep things steady and in a range of 8500-9000 for the next few months until we get more solid news on the status of the recession. A mix of good and bad news will keep things bouncing around in a rather narrow range until August or September.
I give this a 45% chance of happening.

Good news continues to keep the Market Rising, perhaps to 10,000 - 10,500 by September.

With stocks that were way undersold, still being cheap, and news continuing to mount that the recession is all but over, the markets could react favorably. Sure we have gone up 40% in 3 months, but in order to get to level we were at before the whole Lehman Brothers mess, we would still have to rise another 25-30% from were we are at right now. With a mixture of Good news, and companies reporting earnings better then expected for the 3rd quarter, we could see the dow approach the 10,000 mark or even higher by September.
I give this a 35% chance of happening.


ATTILA said...

all very logical scenarios the problem with nonlinear dynamic are the variables

urvi said...

Thanks for sharing such great post, according to me make a proper analysis of sectors where you want to invest and also see the compatibility and the profitability of that sectors is the perfect way to invest. The professional attitude of investment is like you should invest for long term and don’t follow the crowd. For more details on how to invest in the stock market refer learn to invest money

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