Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Recession over By 2nd Half of this Year


I know my blog is always pretty optimistic about the economy, so for those of you who are pessimists, you may want to skip this post. Anyway, In past entries I had predicted a bottom to the market when it hit 6400, I predicted that unemployment will begin decreasing in early 2010, and the recession would be over by the second half of this year. Well, it looks like some of the experts agree.

Recession over?
A panel of 45 of the nations leading economists, have predicted that the 2nd Quarter of this year, the one we are in now, will still see negative economic growth. However, the last 2 quarters of this year, June onward, will see positive growth from the United States economy. What does that mean? The recession's end is in sight. A full 75% of the economists polled felt the 3rd quarter of this year would see positive GDP growth. Don't get too excited though. The majority of economists polled felt that although growth will finally make it's presence, the rate of growth will be small, and well below the average growth rate of the US economy. The growth rate however will be at about average by the time 2010 rolls around.

Job Predictions

The Panel of economist's average forecasted unemployment rate by the end of 2009 is 9.8%. This is quite a high number, but in 18 months, by the end of 2010, this rate will have dropped to 9.3% and continue falling at a faster pace thereafter for several years. Unemployment is a lagging indicator, so it will usually turn around about 6 months after the general economy. This puts the turnaround somewhere around January or February of 2010.

The Real Estate Market.
Out of the 45 panelist polled, 33 thought that the housing market will bottom in the next month or 2. The negative news is that Home prices will remain at a depressed level for at east another couple years, most experts believe.

Overall however, the economy looks to be getting stronger. The doom and gloom predictions are dying out, and a more optimistic view, like mine are taking hold. How do we know people are becoming more optimistic? The consumer confidence indicator jumped 14 points in the last month.

1 comment:

Robert W said...

I so want to say something!....it's great the 'US of A', is getting better....but! ....what about the Global economy? ....yes I know it comes as a surprise to most American citizens, there is a World out there, and we each rely on one another, 'We' are still in deep dodoo's, and you guy's started the whole damn thing off!
Take five and remember, we are all in this together ....Oh! ... . and thanks for inviting us!
...............Sorry! .......Bob.

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