The Best and Worst States for Unemployment

A couple months back I did a story about the unemployment rate in America. I love looking at data and seeing which areas are hurt the most and the least in the job sector. The US unemployment rate is currently at 9.7%, and will likely top 10% sometime this year before it's eventually but steady pull back, in my opinion. Here is a look at some of the states in the top 5 and bottom 5 of the unemployment data set. As you can see there is quite a disparity between job rates in America.:

Top 5 Most Unemployed States:
Michigan - 15.4%
South Carolina - 12.3%
Rhode Island - 12.2%
Nevada - 12.1%
Oregon - 12.1%

Top 5 Least Unemployed States
North Dakota - 4.6%
South Dakota - 4.9%
Nebraska - 5.1%
Wyoming - 5.7%
Utah - 5.9%

As you can clearly see, there are some major differences between the top and bottom 5 states in Unemployment rates. It is obvious that the States in the Union who rely heavily on agriculture are doing quite well, while those states Like Michigan, whom lost thousands of jobs when the auto industry went bust, and Nevada who is clearly one of the nations worse housing markets, as well as taking a hit from a gambling and travel decline, are the worse.

Unemployment Rate 9.5%

Well, we come to the end of a shortened market week, and have to say, Yesterday threw us some surprises. One surprised figure was the number of jobs on employers' payrolls fell by 467,000 in June, which was significantly worse than analysts had expected. The unemployment rate rose to 9.5. This really throws a dagger into the hoped of a recovery in the 3rd and forth quarters of the year. I still think their is hope, but it is possible we will have to wait till Quarter 1 of 2010 to see an end to the recession.

Below is the usual list of economic data to be released next week. Unlike this week, there is not all that much data becoming available, but the usual claims for unemployment should be interesting.

Jul 6 10:00 AM ISM Services Jun
Jul 8 10:30 AM Crude Inventories
Jul 8 3:00 PM Consumer Credit May
Jul 9 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/04
Jul 9 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories May
Jul 10 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Jun
Jul 10 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Jun
Jul 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance May
Jul 10 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel Jul

There really are not too many earnings reports being released either, next week. Here are a couple of the highlights though.

Tuesday - Ruby Tuesday
Wednesday - Pepsi
Thursday - Chevron

Next Weeks Market News Makers - Unemployment to 9.2%

It's Friday again, so that means we look at what one can expect from the markets next week. This week has been pretty good overall. We saw today that the first quarter GDP decline was only 5.7% instead of the initially thought 6.1% decline. Experts also predict a much flatter decline for the 2nd quarter and finally an increase in GDP for Quarter 3. By the forth quarter, experts predict a 1.8% increase in GDP. So what on tap for next week? Here is the economic Calendar for the first week in June, 2009:

- Jun 1 8:30 AM Personal Income
- Jun 1 8:30 AM Personal Spending
- Jun 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending
- Jun 1 10:00 AM ISM Index
- Jun 2 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales
- Jun 2 2:00 PM Auto Sales
- Jun 2 2:00 PM Truck Sales
- Jun 3 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change
- Jun 3 10:00 AM Factory Orders
- Jun 3 10:00 AM ISM Services
- Jun 3 10:30 AM Crude Inventories
- Jun 3 10:35 AM Crude Inventories
- Jun 4 8:30 AM Initial Claims 05/30
- Jun 4 8:30 AM Productivity-Rev. Q1
- Jun 4 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs Q1
- Jun 5 8:30 AM Average Workweek
- Jun 5 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings
- Jun 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls
- Jun 5 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate
- Jun 5 2:00 PM Consumer Credit

The data that I will be looking at that I think could move the markets quite a bit are, the construction spending data, which could signal a turnaround in the housing market, as well as the Unemployment data. The Unemployment rate was at 8.9% at the end of April, and will likely increase to about 9.2% for the end of May. Consumer credit is also another big piece of info we will get by Friday, and should let us know in a bit more detail, just how backed up the credit markets are. Another thing to note are the forex markets in which the dollar has continued to fall this week, leading Gold and other commodities to have a nice run.

Unemployment Rates for the Last 20 Years

Today we got word that the the pace of Unemployment for the month decreased a bit. That's not that great news considering it still increased by more then 600,000 individuals. Anyway, On this Thursday I thought we'd have a look at the US unemployment rate for the last 20 years. I like graphs and charts, because like they say "a picture is worth a thousand words." Graphs tell multiple stories and quickly allow you to visualize just how bad things may be right now:


Looking at the chart above, which is about 45 days old, it is really daunting how fast the unemployment rate rose. Much faster then any time in the last 20 years, or last 60 years for that matter. Another thing sticks out is year and a half from 2007-2008 where the unemployment rate was under 4%. At the time we didn't realize how good we had it. Now, as the rate approaches 10%, probably sometime by the year's end, we look back just 18 months and wish we were even close to those rates. The good thing though is that we likely won't go much higher then 10%, and soon after will begin adding jobs. Will we see a rate of 3.5% like we did 2 years ago, anytime soon? I doubt it, but by late 2011 I wouldn't be surprised seeing the rate in the 5-6% range, which isn't half bad.

The Economic Week in Review

Whelp, it's Friday Again, and that means it's time for the weekly recap, and look ahead for next week. This week wasn't all that great. Economic data sort of put things into perspective. The economy is still in terrible shape, but things do look like they are improving somewhat. People who lost there jobs in the last few months are not finding new work, even though the number of newly unemployed people filing claims are shrinking. I think we will see an Unemployment rate of 10% by Late July or early August. One of the problems complicating matters for the unemployed is that most companies are not offering any type of compensation plan, leaving the unemployed extremely vulnerable The housing data also was not all that great. Foreclosures continue to rise, driving the market values down dramatically in many locations across the country.

So, what can we expect next week? There will certainly be some interesting data put out. Below is a list of the economic data to be released next week along with the date and time:

- May 26 9:00 AM S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index
- May 26 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence
- May 27 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales
- May 27 10:30 AM Crude Inventories
- May 28 8:30 AM Durable Goods Orders
- May 28 8:30 AM Durables, Ex-Transport
- May 28 8:30 AM Initial Claims
- May 28 10:00 AM New Home Sales
- May 28 11:00 AM Crude Inventories
- May 29 8:30 AM GDP - Prelim. Q1
- May 29 8:30 AM GDP Deflator Q1
- May 29 9:45 AM Chicago PMI May
- May 29 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev

I will be paying close attention on the 29th to see what the Preliminary GDP numbers look like. Those numbers could really move the markets in one direction or the other. As for Stock's Earnings reports, there are not too many major companies reporting next week. We are sort of in the dead season in terms of earnings.