2010 Stock Market Predictions

I have been known to make predictions, and although I dislike leading people in an y direction, I am doing this for fun only. Please do not follow me, rather make your own personal choice while investing in the stock market. If you search my past predictions, you would see I predicted back in March, when everyone was panicking that the Dow would be at 9000 sometime in July. I also predicted the bottom of the market the day that it hit the bottom in the low 6000's Most of my predictions are just gut instincts, and really probably should not be used as an investing guideline, however Here I go with just a few more.

2010 Stock Market Predictions. (Prices predicted at the start of 2010)

Dow - 10650
We have just over 5 months before the beginning of 2010. The recession will likely be announced over sometime before the end of this year, and we may see the unemployment rate begin to ease. Stocks are still undervalued compared to their future profit potential. I think as long as there are no major snags along the way, 10,650 is a pretty good spot for the Dow to be trading at. That's almost a 20% gain from today's prices.

Google (Goog) - $550
I still love Google. The internet continues to grow, and the mobile internet continues to explode. Google has it's hands surrounding both. Internet ad revenue should continue to grow at a huge rate, and Googles new Wave could bring in a ton of users worldwide. Google should slightly out perform the market over the next 5 months leading to 2010.

Bank of America (BAC) - $23
Bank of America, although they have their share of issues, is a very strong company that should easily have explosive profit growth once the recession is over and things pick back up. The acquisition of Merrill will certainly help them in this once things settle. The housing market is clearly thawing out, and the bank will be the ones to benefit from this. A 80% gain in the next 5 months may seem extraordinary, but if you look at how far this stock has fallen it really isn't.

CD Interest Rates
If you are like me, you may have some cash you have that you like to keep free. I usually do this with no-penalty Certificates of Deposits. Having said this, the rates have been under 2% as of late. I think that starting in 2010, rates should begin increasing. By the end of 2010 a 4-5% CD will likely become available. To start 2010, I am guessing maybe 2.5-3% CD's will be available.

Like I said, take these predictions with a grain of salt. Follow your own stock market lead, not mine.

AAPL, PFE, and Others Report this Week

After quite an eventful week last week, we are in for a bit of a quieter one for economic data. Having said this, we will likely get some excitement from the earnings reports being released this week. Last week saw the market rebound quite well. Intel's results combined with that of Google, and the major banks propelled us back up towards the highs of May. The existing Home sales number coming out on Thursday will be quite important to see if home sales are maybe trending towards a rebound, or at least leveling off.

Jul 20 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Jun
Jul 22 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 07/17
Jul 22 10:35 AM Crude Inventories 07/17
Jul 23 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/18
Jul 23 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Jun
Jul 24 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev Jul


There are way too many stocks reporting this week for me to list, but I'll list a few for each day of the week that I feel could be important market drivers.

Monday:
Halliburton
Texas Instruments

Tuesday:
AMD
Apple
Continental Airlines
The Coca-Cola Company
Yahoo

Wednesday
Altria Group, Inc.
Ebay
Etrade
Eli Lilly
PepsiCo
Pfizer
Piper Jaffray

Thursday
3M
Amazon
AT&T
Baidu
Bristol Myers Squib
Wyeth
Xerox

Friday
Exelon

Recession of 2007 - 2009 Compared with Others

I thought it would be interesting to compare the current recession we are in to the average recession in the the last 25 years. Recession's are normal cyclical events that happen on average every 7-8 years or so. Although the media often blows things out of proportion, without recessions, we would eventually have bubbles in every market, which would eventually collapse, causing a much more severe event, called a depression.

In the last 15 years, not counting the last 2 which are part of the current recession, the average recession lasted only about 8 months. The current recession we are in right now, however has lasted over twice as long, at 17 months and running. With any recession, there is a bear market as well. The average bear market between 1983 and 2007 lasted 1 year (12 months). The current bear market that we just saw lasted 19 months. The bear market is over, at least for now, but the recession has yet to officially be declared over, and likely won't be for some time to come. Even if the recession is over, it will take about 4-5 months to determine that for a fact.

Despite the negativity of it all, there is some good news. The bear market appears over, thus we are likely at the start of a bull market run. A bull market, unlike it's evil twin brother, the Bear market lasts on average about 4 years or about 49 months. Since we are starting at such a low base, it is likely this bull market will be stronger than most. The average Bull market can show returns over 100%, with one third of that gained within the first 12 months. The lesson of this is that despite all the negative media over the last 12 months or so, things probably won't be as bad as most experts were predicting, and the great thing about it is that if you have cash on the sidelines, and a little risk to bare, now is an amazing time to invest in the market with a long term horizon.