Blog

Bitcoin, Can The Currency Last?

2011-06-15T17:01:00.000-07:00

About one year ago a new online currency, called Bitcoin began to take shape. At the time of launch not many people adopted the idea of yet another worthless fiat currency, similar to the US Dollar, however, the fact that they will eventually limit it's supply ended up slowly attracting more and more interested parties. After all, as the United States continues to print new money to the tune of trillions of dollars, eventually all the Bitcoins will be mined, and the currency will be limited.

Could the founders of Bitcoin be onto something or is it merely a fad that will die out as time passes? Will investors turn to Bitcoin as a means to counter inflation? These are all questions being asked at the various Bitcoin Forums online, with both positive and negative responses.

We'd like to hear your opinions on what you think the future of this brand new currency is. Will it survive from a value standpoint, and will the numerous world governments take actions against it?

A Look at TheMoneyKid

2010-05-19T09:34:00.001-07:00

Just lately many of us have noticed a massive number of brand new "Get Paid to" type programs which usually seem to present amazing incentives for giving visitors to their own sites. Presently there are basically hundreds and hundreds of cons out there that operate with the admins greatest interest at hand, leaving behind the people in the dark at the finish, and without cash. One fresh site like this is the recently launched plan called The Money Kid. If you are sensible you would quickly avoid this website and any sites like it.

The Way TheMoneyKid functions is that you get your very own individual web address which you duplicate and paste all over the place. The Money Kid recommends that you propagate the referral link you are offered all around the internet via Myspace, Forums, Bebo, and so on. The more mouse clicks you get to your individualized TheMoneyKid web address, the more cash you will generate. In reality, you will make 15 cents for each and every click you get on your own customized link. That's at least what these people claim.

Remember that if an offer appears much too good to be real than it almost surely is. Of course, no one will close these types of plans down since they are not inquiring for any kind of cash to get started, but many folks will squander a remarkable quantity of their time, imagining they are making lots of funds, when in truth they are just viewing numbers go up on a monitor.

Just remember to be incredibly mindful, and think about how these programs make their money just before moving head first into something you have no idea about. Bear in mind the program itself requires to be able to generate more money than they are having to pay out. This signifies that if they need to pay out $15 for every 250 views of their web site, the plan wants to make at minimum that to keep in business. Do the mathematics. If it won't add up, run!

Ad-Ventures4u

2009-09-08T07:51:00.000-07:00

Every now and then I like to bring up sites and investment programs which seem to be attracting a lot of attention. I have seen autosurfs like 12Dailypro come and go, and have also seen many people make quite a lot of money from timing these programs correctly. The latest autosurf which seems to have gained a lot of publicity in the internet circles is Ad-ventures4u.

Is Ad-ventures4u Legitimate?
I have my doubts that they will be able to consistently pay out what they claim, however since it is a variable interest rate, they could technically lower it and survive for quite some time. They do have other business's that they are in fact making money with, so the longevity of the program could be quite long.

Deciding to Invest or Not in Ad-ventures4u
What one needs to do before investing in Ad-ventures4u or any autosurf for that matter, is the following. Make sure the amount of money you are investing is not money you could not live without. Always view autosurf investing as a gamble instead of an actual investment, because in fact it is more like playing a casino game like Texas Hold'em poker. Analyze the trends of the payouts, and decide for yourself it it may be too late to throw money towards something that will likely end eventually.

Personally I never invest into these things as I would rather participate in something that is monitored by governmental bodies like the SEC.

Lockerz Info

2009-08-12T14:05:00.000-07:00

Today I saw another trending topic in the online incentive sphere. It's a site called Lockerz, which is located at Lockerz.com. Anyhow, I thought I'd give a brief overview of what I think the program will encompass, as well as my personal opinion on it.

What is Lockerz About?
It seems like a million new web site ideas pop up each week, however, some of them catch my eye more than others. Lockerz is one of them. The Company is run by by an ex executive of both Amazon.com as well as American Eagle Outfitters, Kathy Savitt. It is also funded by a rather respected investment group called Liberty Media. This here tells me we won't be seeing a fly by night scheme. The site itself will seemingly give incentives to individuals who sign up and then participate in their community, buy products through their site, refer their friends, and participate in other online activities like games and trivia. The site is free to join, thus you have nothing to lose besides time for signing up. You must have an invite though by an already established member to do so. You can get Lockerz Invites Here.

My personal Opinion on Lockerz
Like I said above, I see so many programs come and go, but the very fact that this one is backed by some rather respected people with experience in the field, gives me a good feeling about it. I'm sure people won't be getting free 50 inch TV's any time soon, without spending months participating at the site, but it promises to be an interesting idea which just may work if executed properly. There is a forum for Lockerz as well as several blogs about the program already popping up.

Understanding Autosurfs

2009-08-11T08:37:00.000-07:00

I usually stay away from the online investment talk, because they are more like gambles than actual investment opportunities. I recently however had a few people contact me asking me if I knew anything about some of the latest Autosurf programs that are being promoted around the net.

My Overall View Towards Autosurf Programs
As many of you know, I used to Own and operate Talkgold.com for several years until selling it off back in November of 2007. I still remain a part of the site and keep my admin duties over there. Having said this I try to keep Talkgold as opened and free as possible, because autosurfs and well as HYIPs are more like gambles than they are actual investments. Having said this, the real programs do exist, and personally I feel people should be allowed to invest in these things as long as they know what they may be getting themselves into.

Remember a few things when putting money into one of these programs
#1 - Expect to lose your money
#2 - Get your initial investment back ASAP, and then play with the profits.
#3 - Don't believe everything you hear online about Autosurfs, or any investment program not recognized by the SEC.

HYIPs as well as Autosurfs should be viewed no differently then a game of Texas hold'em poker. It's a gamble, but with the proper preparation, skill, and luck you can turn the odds in your favor.

10 Cheapest Cities to Live in in America

2009-07-30T05:45:00.001-07:00

Now May not be the best time to move, if you are cash strapped, but a move actually can be a great way to spark a declining attitude towards ones own life. If you have the money for a move, and was recently laid off, if may be a good time to think about where you would like to live other than your current town. If a job is available elsewhere, and it's some place you and your family wouldn't mind moving to, then why not be bold, and take the challenge. Here 10 of best cities to move too if you are money strapped. They are ranked using a formula with variables for how cheap living expenses are, the unemployment rate, and the average salary of the metropolitan area.

#1 Manchester-Nashua, NH
#2 Ogden-Clearfield, UT
#3 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
#4 Worcester, MA Metropolitan
#5 Ann Arbor, MI Metropolitan
#6 Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
#7 Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
#8 Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
#9 Fort Collins-Loveland, CO
#10 Pittsburgh, PA Metropolitan

Of course you have to have the financial means to make a large move to one of these areas, and if you already have a job, make sure you can secure a similar job in one of these areas before just picking up everything and hauling it away.

The Best and Worst States for Unemployment

2009-07-29T06:46:00.000-07:00

A couple months back I did a story about the unemployment rate in America. I love looking at data and seeing which areas are hurt the most and the least in the job sector. The US unemployment rate is currently at 9.7%, and will likely top 10% sometime this year before it's eventually but steady pull back, in my opinion. Here is a look at some of the states in the top 5 and bottom 5 of the unemployment data set. As you can see there is quite a disparity between job rates in America.:

Top 5 Most Unemployed States:
Michigan - 15.4%
South Carolina - 12.3%
Rhode Island - 12.2%
Nevada - 12.1%
Oregon - 12.1%

Top 5 Least Unemployed States
North Dakota - 4.6%
South Dakota - 4.9%
Nebraska - 5.1%
Wyoming - 5.7%
Utah - 5.9%

As you can clearly see, there are some major differences between the top and bottom 5 states in Unemployment rates. It is obvious that the States in the Union who rely heavily on agriculture are doing quite well, while those states Like Michigan, whom lost thousands of jobs when the auto industry went bust, and Nevada who is clearly one of the nations worse housing markets, as well as taking a hit from a gambling and travel decline, are the worse.

2010 Stock Market Predictions

2009-07-28T06:03:00.000-07:00

I have been known to make predictions, and although I dislike leading people in an y direction, I am doing this for fun only. Please do not follow me, rather make your own personal choice while investing in the stock market. If you search my past predictions, you would see I predicted back in March, when everyone was panicking that the Dow would be at 9000 sometime in July. I also predicted the bottom of the market the day that it hit the bottom in the low 6000's Most of my predictions are just gut instincts, and really probably should not be used as an investing guideline, however Here I go with just a few more.

2010 Stock Market Predictions. (Prices predicted at the start of 2010)

Dow - 10650
We have just over 5 months before the beginning of 2010. The recession will likely be announced over sometime before the end of this year, and we may see the unemployment rate begin to ease. Stocks are still undervalued compared to their future profit potential. I think as long as there are no major snags along the way, 10,650 is a pretty good spot for the Dow to be trading at. That's almost a 20% gain from today's prices.

Google (Goog) - $550
I still love Google. The internet continues to grow, and the mobile internet continues to explode. Google has it's hands surrounding both. Internet ad revenue should continue to grow at a huge rate, and Googles new Wave could bring in a ton of users worldwide. Google should slightly out perform the market over the next 5 months leading to 2010.

Bank of America (BAC) - $23
Bank of America, although they have their share of issues, is a very strong company that should easily have explosive profit growth once the recession is over and things pick back up. The acquisition of Merrill will certainly help them in this once things settle. The housing market is clearly thawing out, and the bank will be the ones to benefit from this. A 80% gain in the next 5 months may seem extraordinary, but if you look at how far this stock has fallen it really isn't.

CD Interest Rates
If you are like me, you may have some cash you have that you like to keep free. I usually do this with no-penalty Certificates of Deposits. Having said this, the rates have been under 2% as of late. I think that starting in 2010, rates should begin increasing. By the end of 2010 a 4-5% CD will likely become available. To start 2010, I am guessing maybe 2.5-3% CD's will be available.

Like I said, take these predictions with a grain of salt. Follow your own stock market lead, not mine.

30 Ways to Save Money on Groceries

2009-07-27T06:17:00.000-07:00

Saving cash is something everyone is looking to do in this terrible economy, so I decided to add another money saving guide to the weekly edition. Here are tips on how to save money while grocery shopping.

- Don’t be afraid of store brands, they are just as good
- Stock up (within reason) when things are on sale
- Get rain checks when sale items are out of stock
- Buy the Sunday paper
- Keep an eye on the weekly store circular
- Clip coupons for name brand items
- Check the store’s website for printable coupons
- Check your cupboards, pantry, and fridge before leaving
- Keep a complete list of items you need on your fridge
- Break your list down by store and plan your outing
- Plan your trip through the store to minimize wandering the aisles
- Don’t forget your list when you head to the store, but…
- Be willing to deviate from your list for great deals
- Be on the lookout for “double coupon” days
- Stack manufacturer and store coupons, both are allowed to be used at once
- Keep a price list/book so you know a deal when you see one
- Learn your store’s sale cycle (sales are often cyclical)
- Visit multiple stores to get the best deals, or…
- Buy in bulk, but…
- Be sure to look at unit pricing
- Bring a calculator (unless you’re a math whiz)
- Be on the lookout for “shrinkage” (e.g., 1.5 quarts vs. half gallon)
- Cook large batches and freeze for later
- Don’t waste leftovers
- Ask your preferred store to match prices form elsewhere
- Avoid non-grocery items that can be bought for less elsewhere
- Joins the store’s affinity program and flash your card
- Buy a chest freezer
- Eat less – seriously, many people eat way more than necessary
- Cook from scratch, avoid processed foods

Remember to spend some time preparing for your shopping expedition, as it could literally save you hundreds of dollars each year.

Next Week: ExxonMobile Reports

2009-07-24T06:04:00.000-07:00

So far this week, has been quite a thriller for those long in the stock market. Earnings reports came in better than expected for the most part, and Housing numbers surprised even the most optimistic experts in the field. So, will next week continue the rally? Could the Dow Actually start it's accent up to the 10,000 mark within a couple months? I guess we will all find out soon. Let's take a look at Next weeks agenda.

- Jul 27 10:00 AM New Home Sales
- Jul 28 9:00 AM Consumer Confidence
- Jul 28 9:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
- Jul 28 9:00 AM S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index
- Jul 29 8:30 AM Durable Orders
- Jul 29 8:30 AM Durables, Ex Transportation
- Jul 29 10:30 AM Crude Inventories
- Jul 29 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book
- Jul 30 8:30 AM Initial Claims
- Jul 31 8:30 AM GDP-Adv.
- Jul 31 8:30 AM Core PCE
- Jul 31 8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv.
- Jul 31 8:30 AM Employment Cost Index
- Jul 31 9:45 AM Chicago PMI
- Jul 31 10:00 AM Employment Cost Index

As you can see, there are a lot of second quarter numbers coming out. I will be paying particular attention to the New Home sales, as well as the home price indicators, to see if the increase in pre-owned home sales was caused by a lowering of prices, or a decrease in new home sales, or if it the entire market is beginning to thaw. The unemployment and GDP numbers should also be significant economic indicators to fill us in on the state of the general economy. Next week is also another big one for earnings. Below are some of the key companies reporting next week:

Monday:
Radio Shack
Sohu
Verizon

Tuesday:
BP
Earthlink
Mittel
Viacom

Wednesday:
Hess
IAC

Thursday:
Brunswick
Expedia
ExxonMobile

Friday:
Chevron

6 Ways to Save Money on Gas

2009-07-23T05:46:00.000-07:00

No one really knows where oil prices are headed now-a-days. We have seen the price of oil affect gasoline prices throughout the world to a pretty large degree, especially over the last 3-4 years. As prices bounce around, the economy also is not in great shape. Everyone is looking to save some cash on gasoline right? Well here are some things you, as a consumer, can do to help lower your gasoline use.

#1 Choose alternate cheap methods.
Consider walking, biking, or riding the bus. The first two will not only save you money, but possibly even a couple years on your life, and maybe some money on those extra large sweatpants you have to buy.

#2 Park in the Very First Spot you Find.
Don't spend minutes riding around looking for a better spot. In the time it takes to find another spot, you could already have been at your destination. Walk a little if it's nice out. Time in your car means more gasoline consumption.

#3 Combine trips.
Plan out the quickest way to run all your errands that will save on time and distance traveled. Plan ahead instead of having to run out 5 times every day.

#4 Check the Internet for Gas Deals
Check out sites like Gasbuddy.com for deals in your area. Sometimes you can save as much as 15 cents a gallon from one station to the next.

#5 Who Cares What Brand it is
Gasoline is Gasoline. Who cares if it is Mobile, BP, or some no-name brand? There may be slight differences in the additives of one brand compared to another, but overall, you will not notice a difference.

#6 Sign up for a Gasoline Credit Card
You can often save up to 3% on all gasoline purchases with a cash back rewards program offered to people with good credit scores. Remember to pay off your card on time every time, and to shop around for the best deal.

AAPL, Dynamite Again

2009-07-22T05:32:00.000-07:00

There are only a few companies in America that I can say are as exciting as Apple (AAPL). Not only is Appl continuing to innovate, but while just about every other computer company has flopped during this recession, they report that sales of their personal computer, iMac's are up. That is incredible, and just goes to show how popularity in one area can mean success in all. Ever since Apples Launch of the iPod several years ago, a product which has become the symbol of electronics for this decade, the "coolness factor" has driven up sales in all their other product lines. Than came the iPhone, which just built upon the iPod's successes.

So, whats in the future for AAPL?
You might think, "hey, the glittery exterior of the iphone and ipod are wearing off, how will Apple keep the success coming? Simple. They will do what they did in the first place, innovate. Rumors have it that sometime this year, Apple will release a tablet like computer. Some describe it as a larger iPod touch, while others describe it as a possible alteration to the newly popular netbooks. Either way, I'm certain they will blow us away with their innovative foresight.

It just makes me wonder. If a company like Apple who sell products which cost consumers prices that are above average in each area they are in, can prosper in a recession, what happens when the economy begins to grow again? Might be time to considering adding some of their shares to your stock portfolio.

How To Save Money on your Water Billl

2009-07-21T06:00:00.000-07:00

With the economy still shaky, and unemployment rate about to hit 10%, every little bit of money one can save could mean a huge difference in their lives. Here are 7 things you can do to save a bundle on your next water bill.

1. While waiting for the shower to heat up, catch the cold water in a bucket so you can use it later to water plants, flush your toilet or clean outdoor furniture. This can save as much as 300 gallons per month alone.

2. Turn the water off while brushing your teeth. This will save 3 gallons per day, or 1000 gallons per year on average.

3. Use less detergent while washing dishes by hand. A smaller amount will clean just as well, and take a lot less water to rinse off.

4. Rinse Vegetables in a fill pot instead of letting the faucet run over them. This can save up to 3000 gallons per year.

5. Instead of putting everything in your garbage disposal, instead create a compost pile. This can save you up to 1000 gallons per year.

6. Put mulch around trees and plants. Mulch allows water to stay in the soil instead of evaporating. This means less watering, which will save you upwards of 12,000 gallons of water per year.

7. Do not water your lawn on windy days. The wind speeds evaporation, and can mean the loss of up to 300 gallons of water in just one session.

These simple steps can save you over 40,000 gallons of water per year. That's a lot of money.

AAPL, PFE, and Others Report this Week

2009-07-20T05:24:00.000-07:00

After quite an eventful week last week, we are in for a bit of a quieter one for economic data. Having said this, we will likely get some excitement from the earnings reports being released this week. Last week saw the market rebound quite well. Intel's results combined with that of Google, and the major banks propelled us back up towards the highs of May. The existing Home sales number coming out on Thursday will be quite important to see if home sales are maybe trending towards a rebound, or at least leveling off.

Jul 20 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Jun
Jul 22 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 07/17
Jul 22 10:35 AM Crude Inventories 07/17
Jul 23 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/18
Jul 23 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Jun
Jul 24 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev Jul

There are way too many stocks reporting this week for me to list, but I'll list a few for each day of the week that I feel could be important market drivers.

Monday:
Halliburton
Texas Instruments

Tuesday:
AMD
Apple
Continental Airlines
The Coca-Cola Company
Yahoo

Wednesday
Altria Group, Inc.
Ebay
Etrade
Eli Lilly
PepsiCo
Pfizer
Piper Jaffray

Thursday
3M
Amazon
AT&T
Baidu
Bristol Myers Squib
Wyeth
Xerox

Friday
Exelon

Stock Market Good News Emerges - Goog Reports

2009-07-16T05:53:00.000-07:00

It seems that just last week, the investors were once again worried about the status of our economic recovery. People began questioning if the market rally from the 6000's to the 8000's were warranted. Fast forward a week, and now it seems we are all blissful with dollar signs in our eyes. There are a few things propelling us.

Earnings reports:
Intel released what some experts are calling a monster blowout in both earnings and their forecast. Intel stock shot up close to 8% following earnings, and looks to be in great shape. They also took much of the computer sector as well as the entire DOW and S&P with them, as we saw the Dow up over 256 points. Clearly Intel's results signaled to traders that the technology industry is on the rebound, which also means just about every other industry must be as well.

Jobs Reports:
Unemployment is still going up, however, this morning we learned it was going up at a much slower pace now.Initial jobless claims dropped by 47,000 to 522,000, lower than forecast, in the week ended July 11, from a revised 569,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said today in Washington. This gives us hope that we could see the unemployment number begin to fall by year's end.

Google (GOOG) reports at the close today, and investors are certainly excited to see their results. Google is expected to earn $5.09 per share on revenue of $4.06 billion, based on the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters. If they beat this number, it would be incredible news for most of the market. We will see around 4:15 today.

Predicting the Stock Market With Bets

2009-07-15T19:40:00.000-07:00

One of the sites I like to look at to get a true feeling of what people expect, weather it is with the economy, sports, politics, etc, is Intrade.com. Basically Intrade is a betting site, that works sort of like the stock market. The higher the share price, the more likely people think an event will happen. There is not better way to get a good accurate feel of a general populations thoughts, than through betting. Polls, and questionairs can be deceiving, as the people taking them do not have an incentive to be honest. With Intrade, people put their money where their mouths are. So, I will take a quick look at some of the states:

According to the bettors at Intrade.com the following is true according to the last trade price at the betting site.

Facebook IPO
14% Chance that FaceBook Will announce an IPO by December 31st, 2009
31% Chance that FaceBook Will announce an IPO by December 31st, 2010

Dow Jones Price Target
88.5% chance the Dow will end at over 6000 on December 31st, 2009
77.5% Chance the Dow will end at over 7000 on December 31st, 2009
30.2% Chance the Dow will end at over 9000 on December 31st, 2009
7.8% Chance the Dow will end at over 11000 on December 31st, 2009

Economic Data
55% Chance the US Unemployment will be Greater than 10.50% by December 31st, 2009
7% Chance the US Unemployment will be Greater than 11.50% by December 31st, 2009
55% Chance the US Recession will end in this Quarter (Quarter 3)

Just thought these numbers were interesting. Take them for what they are.

GMGMQ Halted, Finally

2009-07-13T17:31:00.000-07:00

I very rarely blog about one particular stock, however with this instance I am making an exception. Earlier today the the self regulatory body of the brokerage industry, FINRA stepped in and halted trading on the Bankrupt General Motors company, now known as "Motors Liquidators," with ticker symbol GMGMQ.

Why did it Take so Long to Halt GMGMQ?
This is a question many people are asking. Why didn't this stock get halted weeks ago? General motors stated repeatedly that the shares of GMGMQ would be worthless once the US government, the United Auto Workers, and the company’s bondholders take their pieces of the restructured company. By allowing it to continue to trade it allowed for manipulation to occur, and traders to make quick money off of the uninformed.

What Sparked the Halt?
Earlier today the stock surged, up 38% for really no other reason then stock newsletters pumping it up. The initial jump in price caught the attention of investors who thought that maybe the GMGMQ symbol represented the new General Motors which emerged from bankruptcy just last Friday. This was not the case, thus the halt to stop the confusion.

It's pretty crazy when a company that claims their stock is worthless trades at a market cap of over $600 million, like it was at at the time of the halt earlier today. I just wonder how many investors lost big money thinking they were buying into the new General motors that is now no longer bankrupt.

Tazoodle - A look Inside

2009-07-12T08:18:00.000-07:00

Below is an overview of a new Search engine which launches in about 98 days. It's called Tazoodle, and it leaves many questions to be answered. This overview is written by a guest author, and not myself:

Overview of Tazoodle

Here's the brand new search engine Tazoodle. We don't know much about it. In this article, we're going to talk about how it works.

In the beginning, after registering a Tazoodle account, a user becomes a viewer. The viewer becomes an advertiser, when a website is added to the account and advertising is purchased. After that, the website of advertiser is added to the display list of the website together with other advertisers. Then, their website is displayed at some times.

One website's view or click cost is $1 and each advertiser pays fees ahead of their site being shown. $1 purchases one credit for website display. Tazoodle gains income, when an advertiser's site is displayed. The earned income is shared differently with different accounts in the next manner – 50% of the total income goes to account owners, which merit sharing in the earnings pool, 75% of the remained 50% goes to advertisers, and 25% goes to advertisers and viewers.

Account keepers can share in the everyday income pool by surveying 20 advertiser sites for 15 seconds each. Advertisers receive a 25% bonus in credits for website display. All that is calculated and then added to their display credits every day. The site display credit count defines the quantity of times the website of the advertiser might be displayed and the implicit income gained by the advertiser.

Both viewer and advertiser can introduce Tazoodle to others. If the user creates an account under the account number of either viewer or advertiser, they become the sponsor of the new account. The sponsor receives a 10% cash commission, if the new account's owner buys advertising. In the same manner if the new account's proprietor invites a user to Tazoodle that later buys advertising also, the first sponsor will receive a 5% cash commission. Commissions are paid instantly to the cash account of the sponsor. Every day, the viewing earnings and commission earnings will be counted and transferred to the user's cash account. Then, each user will have the choice to buy Tazoodle advertising, transmit money to another user's cash account of transfer it to International Global Exchange or PayPal account, which offers debit card facilities and bank-to-bank transfers.

July Earnings and Economic Data

2009-07-10T06:53:00.000-07:00

This has been another, not so good, week in the markets. Having said this, I am still very optimistic. I feel that these drops in the market are just buying opportunities for later in the year and next year. I have been asked, where I thought the DOW would be by the middle of 2011. No one, not even the best economic experts in the World could even venture a good guess at this question. Anything could happen between now and than. I will however say that in 2 years from now, I could see the Dow in the 11,000 - 12,000 range. Now that's almost a 50% gain from today. 25% per year is an amazing return.

Next week is going to be certainly a wild one. We will get a lot of information on the status of the economy. Most importantly, the earnings reports from some of the largest corporations on the planet, including, Google, IBM, Citibank, Bank of America, and many others. In addition to this, we will also get the following economic data released all throughout next week.

Jul 13 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Jun
Jul 14 8:30 AM Core PPI Jun
Jul 14 8:30 AM PPI Jun
Jul 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jun
Jul 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto
Jul 14 10:00 AM Business Inventories May
Jul 15 8:30 AM Core CPI Jun
Jul 15 8:30 AM CPI Jun
Jul 15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Jul
Jul 15 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Jun
Jul 15 9:15 AM Industrial Production Jun
Jul 15 10:00 AM Business Inventories May
Jul 15 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 07/10
Jul 15 10:35 AM Crude Inventories 07/10
Jul 15 2:00 PM Minutes of FOMC Meeting June 24
Jul 16 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/11
Jul 16 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows May
Jul 16 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Jul
Jul 17 8:30 AM Building Permits Jun
Jul 17 8:30 AM Housing Starts Jun

I will be paying close attention to the Business Inventory number, as well as the Philadelphia Fed. The Housing numbers should also be very interesting. So, whether you are buying or selling in the current conditions, Next week will certainly make a financial impact on your holdings.

2009 2nd Quarter Earnings - Google, Citibank, etc

2009-07-09T07:24:00.000-07:00

We have seen the stock market drop nearly 10% from it's Highs back in late May. In the last two weeks though, the market has really tumbled. Most of this is from economic data, which was not as good as expected, but a lot of the negative sentiment is from jitters before the 2nd quarter earnings reports for 2009. Starting next week we will see some very important companies release their earnings. Below are just some of the companies releasing their reports next week, that I feel are a bit more important to the economy as a whole.

Tuesday, July 14th
Goldman Sachs
Johnson & Johnson

Wednesday, July 15th
Kinder Morgan
Worthington Industries

Thursday, July 16th
Google
IBM

Friday, July 18th
Bank of America
Citigroup
General Electric
Mattel

If the majority of these reports are better then expected, and if the companies give forecasts that seem to lend a hint of optimism towards a soon to be expanding economy, meaning more job opportunities, we may just retest the highs of late May. Having said this, it could go the other way as well. I personally see more room to the upside then downside though.

How to Save on Life Insurance

2009-07-08T07:16:00.000-07:00

Life insurance. It's not something anyone really wants to think about, because no one wants to consider the possibility of dying earlier then expected. Having said this, Life Insurance is one of the more important insurance types anyone can buy. Be aware that there are a lot of companies out there that will rip you off on policy terms. Because of this I have created a short, but important list of things you can do to save money on your Life insurance policy:

#1 Look for "No Load" Policies
Although they are rare, "No-load" policies are a smart move. This means that you are not paying any of your monthly premium for expenses to the agents, thus more money will go immediately to work for you. The best way to get a No-Load policy is to seek out financial advisers which charge a flat one time fee.

#2 Improve Your Health
There is no questioning why a Life Insurer would charge a lower rate to someone who is healthy. Concentrate on quitting smoking, losing weight, and decreasing your blood pressure and cholesterol levels. Note that you usually have to stop smoking several years prior to getting a policy in order to get the "non-smokers" rate.

#3 Pay Entire Insurance Bill Yearly.
Do not opt for the monthly payments. This will only increase your rate and interest payments. If you pay the policy free and clear at the start of each billing year, you will walk away with much more cash at the end of the year.

#4 If You Are Healthy, Do Not Buy A Guaranteed Issue Policy
Guaranteed issue policies are policies which require no medical exam, and are guaranteed to you. The problem is, that if you are healthy, you want the insurer to know. Guaranteed issue policies are riskier to the insurer, thus they cost more for you.

Remember as with every financial decision, do your research, online and offline to make the best decision possible for you.

47 Ways to Raise Your Credit Score

2009-07-07T07:00:00.000-07:00

At Another website I run I often get asked questions about credit scores, and how one can raise them. Yesterday someone emailed me with a 600 Credit Score, who was panicking because she couldn't get a mortgage. She wanted to know how she could raise her score to at least a 700 within 12-18 months. Without Going into detail I have listed 47 different ways one can raise their credit score. Many of these are obvious, yet people continue to ignore them.

1. Make Sure that each Creditor Reports to the Credit Bureaus
2. Add Your Name to Someone Else’s Good Account
3. Get Credit Advice from a Professional
4. Do Not Max Out any Credit Cards
5. Pay All your Bills on Time Every Time
6. Get Current on Past Due Accounts
7. Immediately Settle Disputed Accounts
8. Do Not Close Unused Credit Accounts
9. Do Not Make Too Many Credit Inquiries
10. Reduce Revolving Your Debts
11. Never File For Bankruptcy
12. Dispute Delinquent Credit Accounts
13. Correct Credit Report Inaccuracies
14. Get a Secured Credit Card
15. Open New Credit Accounts with High Limits
16. Close Accounts Slowly, Starting with the Newest
17. Get a Savings or Checking Account
18. Quickly Dissolve Joint Accounts after a Divorce
19. Avoid Consolidating Debts or Balance Transfers
20. Negotiate Better Terms with Creditors
21. Stop Using Credit Cards
22. Ask for a Credit Limit Increase, But Not Too Often
23. Never Take a Cash Advance
24. Occasionally Use Your Credit Cards
25. Pay Utility Bills on Time
26. Maintain at Least One Good Account
27. Something is Better than Nothing
28. Shop for Loans within a Short Period
29. Live Within Your Financial Means
30. Apply for an Auto Loan
31. Don’t Open Too Many Accounts within a Short Period
32 Add Information to Your Credit Report
33. Payoff Existing Loans
34. Pay More than the Minimum Payment
35. Ask Creditor to Delete a 30-Day Late Item
36. Enroll for Automatic Bill Paying Services
37. Resist the “In-Store Credit” Temptation
38. Pay Credit Cards Early
39. Do Not Exceed Your Credit Limit
40. Pay Balances Off in Full
41. Avoid Finance Companies
42. Re-Open Closed Accounts
43. Lower Your Overall Debt Ratio And Increase Your Assets
44. Have at Least Three Open Accounts At Any One Time
45. Do Not Apply for a “Capital One” Credit Card
46. Prioritize Your Debts
47. Always Know Your Credit Score

Should you Start Your Own Business?

2009-07-06T06:50:00.000-07:00

As the United states unemployment rate approaches 10%, more and more people are looking for work. As this occurs, more people are considering launching their own business, and firing any future boss's they may have. The dream of working for yourself, is one that certainly has it's benefits, but also has several dangerous risks. Below I will Provide 5 Questions that you should ask yourself before you enter the world of entrepreneurship.

#1 Do you completely understand the downside of Working for yourself?
From working 16 hour days, to constantly being on call, per se, do you understand just what is needed to succeed? Find someone who is in this line of work and ask them what they may have to be less appealing about working for themselves in the particular area you are thinking of.

#2 Do you have enough cash to survive for the next 12-24 months with 0 Income?
Running a business means reinvesting profits usually to begin. Can you survive without any profit for up to 2 years? How much Money do you have saved?

#3 What Positives and Negatives are you leaving behind in a job working for someone else?
How do they compare with what you will be doing?

#4 Are you doing this for the money or the Happiness?
You must be passionate about the business you are creating. If you are running the business for the sole purpose of getting rich, you likely will not succeed. Unless you enjoy what you will be doing, you will likely slack without the presence of a boss, especially if you are used to working for someone else.

#5 Are you in the right stage of your life to be taking on these responsibilities?
If you know you will need to work 12-16 hour days, and have a couple toddlers at home who need your caring, than it may be best to hold off on your Entrepreneurial desires.

As with any life changing change, you must spend as much time as possible weighing your options. Never jump into something without the proper research.

Unemployment Rate 9.5%

2009-07-03T06:46:00.000-07:00

Well, we come to the end of a shortened market week, and have to say, Yesterday threw us some surprises. One surprised figure was the number of jobs on employers' payrolls fell by 467,000 in June, which was significantly worse than analysts had expected. The unemployment rate rose to 9.5. This really throws a dagger into the hoped of a recovery in the 3rd and forth quarters of the year. I still think their is hope, but it is possible we will have to wait till Quarter 1 of 2010 to see an end to the recession.

Below is the usual list of economic data to be released next week. Unlike this week, there is not all that much data becoming available, but the usual claims for unemployment should be interesting.

Jul 6 10:00 AM ISM Services Jun
Jul 8 10:30 AM Crude Inventories
Jul 8 3:00 PM Consumer Credit May
Jul 9 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/04
Jul 9 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories May
Jul 10 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Jun
Jul 10 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Jun
Jul 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance May
Jul 10 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel Jul

There really are not too many earnings reports being released either, next week. Here are a couple of the highlights though.

Tuesday - Ruby Tuesday
Wednesday - Pepsi
Thursday - Chevron

Could Bing Challenge Google?

2009-07-02T07:23:00.001-07:00

There has been a lot of fuss lately about the new Microsoft owned search engine called Bing. The fuss by the tech blogs, and Microsoft haters out there probably stems form the fact that Microsoft has claimed they will be spending upwards of $100 million on advertising the new search engine on television, magazines and the internet.

Can Bing's Advertising Help Them Overtake Google?
I can attest to the huge ad budget they have. For some Adwords ads (Googles ad platform), Bing comes up first even if the term has nothing remotely related to computers or search. I also noticed other ad platforms like Kontera, which sells in-text ads, also show Bing for a large array of key words. Google on the other hand has a huge fan base, who in effect advertise them for free. The moment Google announces a new feature to search, there are literally thousands of popular blogs which pick up the news story and announce it to the internet world. Remember, like Microsoft, Google has billions of dollars in cash. So although $100 million is a drop in the bucket for a large corporation like Microsoft, Google can still be using their $100 million to improve an already amazing search product.

Bings Search Results
So, are Bings search results better then that of Google? There have been arguments on both sides for this. In my opinion, after analyzing key results for key terms, it seems as though Bings database of sites it indexes is much smaller than that of Googles. For some searches, Bing may show better results, but for the majority of searches, Google is still far and away the best.

Is Bing Better then Live Search?
The answer to this quest is, absolutely. Even though I feel that Bing is still leaps and bounds from catching Google both search quality wise, and in the number of everyday users. Bing by far outperforms Live search. Bing basically is a copy of Google. They took many of Googles best features and made them their own. They not have sections for health, traffic, weather, travel videos, and even their own "Google Trends."

What will it Take for Bing to Catch Google.
In order for Bing to even come close to Google in their number of everyday users, it will take lot and lots of time, as well as money, but most importantly, something innovative and unique. Bing has modeled themselves after Google, and has many similarities to it. The problem is, Why would people who use Google everyday change their searching habits and just move to another "Google"? The answer is, they won't. Bing needs to be the first mover and come up with something uniques that Google does not already incorporate. If they can do this, and have a nice span of time before Google Copies their unique idea, I think we could start seeing Googlers becoming Bing'ers.

Save Money on Homeowners Insurance

2009-07-01T07:08:00.000-07:00

As you know I have a series of blog posts related to saving money in various industries. Today I will look at a few ways to save money on your Homeowners insurance policy. If you own a home, than Homeowners insurance is a must, however, it can often drive someone crazy trying to figure out what types of coverage they need and want. Below are 4 tips to save some money on your Homeowners insurance policy:

#1 Shop Around
There are so many different insurance companies out there, and so many different types of insurance available. Do your homework before simply signing on to a policy. Check out the National Association of Insurance Commissioners website at: naic.org to get a list of insurers in your area as well as complaints and praises about each.

#2 If Possible, Buy Your House and Automobile Insurance From the Same Company
Today, more and more insurance companies offer all types of insurance, from flood, to homeowners, to auto, to life. If you can buy a couple policies from one company, you will likely save anywhere from 5-10% off your premium. Like I said though, make sure you do your homework first.

#3 Raise Your Deductible
Homeowners insurance should be in place in case of a disaster. If you are paying an insurance company to cover the minor problems you may face with home damage, you are likely losing money. Remember, an Insurance company is making a profit. This means they are charging you more than the average person needs to spend to fix their damaged home. By raising your deductible, you will save a ton of money on your premiums, and still be covered for those major problems you may face with damage to your home. Raising your deductible from $500 to $1000, can save as much as 25% on your premiums.

#4 Stay with the same Insurer.
Unless you find an amazing deal with another company, it is usually best to stay with the same company. Not only are you familiar with the policy terms, but many insurers will decrease your rates by 5-10% after 3-5 years with them.

June Consumer Confidence, Home Prices

2009-06-30T07:43:00.000-07:00

Stocks this morning are lower after a brief gain at the market open. There are 2 main pieces of News this morning, from the economic front. Like I said, this week was going to be packed with news since it's the end of the month as well as the end of the 1st half of 2009.

Consumer Confidence in June Falls
After 2 months of gains in the consumer confidence data, we have seen a drop for the month of June. Consumers attitudes towards the current economic environment dropped to 49.3 from 54.8 in May. Not a huge drop, but still something to note. The overall point here is that the economy is still very weak, but not close to as weak as it was just 4-6 months ago.

Home Prices Dropping, But at Slower Pace
Even though home prices across the nation have dropped once again from March to April, the drop was very mild. Prices on a whole, in the 20 city S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index fell just 0.6% in that given month. On the other hand, the Year over year drop is quite staggering, yet expected, at 18% from April 2008 - April 2009. "While one month's data cannot determine if a turnaround has begun, it seems that some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions," said David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. "We are entering the seasonally strong period in the housing market, so it will take some time to determine if a recovery is really here."

Overall, things were pretty much what most economist expected. We are recovering, but the recovery will not be over night, and will be slow, with a few potholes in the road. Remember, Tomorrow starts the 3rd quarter of 2009 already, and that's when many economist, as well as myself think the recession will be officially over.

How to Save Money on Your Auto Loan

2009-06-29T07:44:00.000-07:00

With the economy still hurting, and people without work, buying a new car is often way in the back of your mind. Having said this, there are many great deals out there, as the auto makers try to recover from bankruptcy, and get rid of the cars which are left over from the hundreds of closed dealerships around the country. If you are looking to buy a new or used vehicle, there probably is not a better time than today. Here are a 4 ways to save money on your Auto loan and car purchase, and make sure the loan is as affordable as possible:

#1 Pay as much money as you can in cash. The larger the down payment, the smaller your monthly payments will be. Often times if you put a large down payment down, you can shorten the length of the loan, thus also reducing the interest rate quite significantly.

#2 Pay close attention to both the price you would pay in normal circumstances, and that which you would pay with a low rate loan. Often times you will not be eligible for the many discounts provided by the dealership and car company should you opt for the low rate loan special.

#3 Shop around for a bank loan, before even considering getting financing from the dealership. Finance charges add up, and often times you will pay several hundred dollars more with the dealership financing option.

#4 You Are in Control. Go into the dealership, tell them the exact price you are willing to pay, and don't budge. Let them know you are not going to budge, and that you would rather forget about buying the vehicle altogether than pay even one more cent. Time are tough for car companies. Dealers have lots of room to bargain with.

Remember to do your homework, checking out the current rates available, as well as the average sale price of the vehicle you are interest in. When you go into the dealership, you want them to know that you are in control, and are just as knowledgeable as they are.

Consumer Spending Rises

2009-06-26T07:03:00.000-07:00

This has been a rather action packed week. We got word from the FED on interest rates, we had Ben Bernanke grilled by law makers, and we got some rather interesting economic data released.

Today in fact we got more information pointing to the economic rebound most economists were hoping for. Consumer spending increased 0.3% for the month of May, after a revised, flat April. Since Consumer spending makes up about 70% of the economy, this is certainly a sign that we are likely pulling out of the recession.

Anyway, here is the list of economic data we will get next week. It should be a pretty telling week, as a lot of data will be out at the end of this month.

- Jun 30 9:00 AM Consumer Confidence Jun
- Jun 30 9:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Apr
- Jun 30 9:00 AM S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index Apr
- Jun 30 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Jun
- Jul 1 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Jun
- Jul 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending May
- Jul 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Jun
- Jul 1 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales May
- Jul 1 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 06/26
- Jul 1 2:00 PM Auto Sales Jun
- Jul 1 2:00 PM Truck Sales Jun
- Jul 2 8:30 AM Average Workweek Jun
- Jul 2 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jun
- Jul 2 8:30 AM Initial Claims 06/27
- Jul 2 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jun
- Jul 2 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Jun
- Jul 2 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Jun
- Jul 2 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jun
- Jul 2 8:30 AM Average Workweek Jun
- Jul 2 8:30 AM Initial Claims 06/27
- Jul 2 10:00 AM Factory Orders

I will be looking at the unemployment rate, initial Claims of Unemployment, and the Auto sales numbers carefully next week for more info on how much better the economy may be improving.

Save Money On Your Credit Cards

2009-06-24T16:47:00.001-07:00

Two weeks ago I started a series which I am trying to continue. It's all about different ways to save money. This Thursday I would like to look at a few ways you can save money with your credit cards. Most people use them, and most of the time they are worse off for doing so. If you know what you are doing and follow simple guidelines, credit cards can be an asset rather then liability to your finances. Here are a few tips to save you money on your credit cards.

#1 Reward Cards Are Not Always Rewarding
It may be tempting to get a rewards card, thinking for every dollar you spend you will earn redeemable points towards all sorts of cool gifts, but unless you pay your balance off in full each month, a rewards card will usually have a higher interest rate. If you are one of those people who pay off your balance right away, than Rewards cards will save you money, but on the other hand if you carry a balance, a normal card will be the money saver.

#2 Simply Ask for a Better Rate
After being a customer for 4-6 months, give the credit card company a call, and simply ask for a better rate. As long as you have been paying your card on time and do not have any other credit problems that have popped up recently, they will likely try and make you happy, and reduce your rate by at least a quarter of a point.

#3 Pay Off Your Entire Balance Each Month
This is probably the single most important tip. If you can't afford something, and can't pay off your balance in a month, then don't buy it. Credit card interest rates are super high compared to normal loans. Paying off part of your balance every month is a sure way to get into long term debt.

#4 Shop for the Best Rate
You will find a huge array of interest rates each credit card you are approved for has. If you jump right into a card offer, you will likely be borrowing at 1-2% higher then your could be. That small percentage really ads up over time if you are not one of those people who pays off their card each month. Shop online for the best rates, and see which ones approve you.

#5 Never Ever Take a Cash Advance
Most Credit card companies will allow you to take a cash advance. This is a straight up cash loan. The problem is that the interest rate is usually quite a bit higher than the normal credit card rate. To make things worse, if you carry a balance, that balance will be paid off before the cash advance loan is since it is more profitable for the credit card company to use your payments towards the lower interest rate balance. If you need cash, go to the bank and get a loan. Even with bad credit your loan will have a much better rate from the bank.

Follow These 5 tips to the best of your ability, and you will not only save money, but have a much better control of your credit card debt.

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Move?

2009-06-24T06:50:00.000-07:00

Today is a big one for those who follow the moves of the Federal Reserve. Today at 2:15 PM EST they will decide on the status of current rates. I'm standing pretty confident though that there will be no changes to the current rates this time around. They are currently hovering in the 0% - 0.5% range and will likely remain there for a couple more months.

The Federal Reserve also has to consider their Treasury buying activities. The current plan to buy treasuries will run it's course come September. Will they extend this plan? Another thing to consider is long term inflation. Ben Bernanke seems to think that he can leave rates low for some time before having to worry about the pending inflation, which will come eventually. In My opinion the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place with their interest rate options. They know that the eventual rise of rates will be needed to counter inflation, but, also know that if they begin raising rates now, it will likely send the stock market down, possibly weakening consumer sentiment and slowing the possible economic turnaround as a whole.

“They have to be really careful,” said Christopher Low, the chief economist at FTN Financial in New York City. “They may not be forceful because they are worried about how the market will react,” he said. “The Fed needs to communicate they are aware of the shift in inflation expectations and they take inflation fighting seriously.”

I expect them to at least keep rates at the current level for another few months, possibly starting to raise them sometime in the 4th quarter of this year. Although the initial reaction from the markets of a rate increase may be a sell off of equities, longer term it will show the markets a recovery is in the works, giving them more confidence.

Recession of 2007 - 2009 Compared with Others

2009-06-22T19:06:00.000-07:00

I thought it would be interesting to compare the current recession we are in to the average recession in the the last 25 years. Recession's are normal cyclical events that happen on average every 7-8 years or so. Although the media often blows things out of proportion, without recessions, we would eventually have bubbles in every market, which would eventually collapse, causing a much more severe event, called a depression.

In the last 15 years, not counting the last 2 which are part of the current recession, the average recession lasted only about 8 months. The current recession we are in right now, however has lasted over twice as long, at 17 months and running. With any recession, there is a bear market as well. The average bear market between 1983 and 2007 lasted 1 year (12 months). The current bear market that we just saw lasted 19 months. The bear market is over, at least for now, but the recession has yet to officially be declared over, and likely won't be for some time to come. Even if the recession is over, it will take about 4-5 months to determine that for a fact.

Despite the negativity of it all, there is some good news. The bear market appears over, thus we are likely at the start of a bull market run. A bull market, unlike it's evil twin brother, the Bear market lasts on average about 4 years or about 49 months. Since we are starting at such a low base, it is likely this bull market will be stronger than most. The average Bull market can show returns over 100%, with one third of that gained within the first 12 months. The lesson of this is that despite all the negative media over the last 12 months or so, things probably won't be as bad as most experts were predicting, and the great thing about it is that if you have cash on the sidelines, and a little risk to bare, now is an amazing time to invest in the market with a long term horizon.

Could A National Strike in Iran Spike Oil Prices?

2009-06-21T18:16:00.000-07:00

The situation in Iran, which I wrote about briefly last week appears to be getting worse as each day goes by. The Defeated candidate, Mousavi, is rumored now to be ready to announce a National strike in Iran which would start with the Oil industry. The question has to be asked... How much will a national strike on the part of Iran affect the international price of oil?

Oil Prices Already Rising
With Summer beginning Yesterday here in the US, Gas prices are already averaging around $2.70 a gallon. Oil Prices have doubled since their lows only a few months ago. If Mousavi does in fact called for a national strike, how high could that make prices go? Technically, the other nations should make up for any production stoppages in Iran, but just the mental impact of the Iran mess could very well send prices back to $90 - $100 by August in my opinion. As you can see Below in the world map of the largest Oil Producing Nations, although tiny geographically, Iran has the third largest oil reserves and currently is responsible for about 8% of all Oil production in the world, with 3.7 million barrels of production per day.

With the economy seemingly getting better, we could be in for another oil price jump. I do not see it getting to $150 a barrel like last year though. Investors will be too hesitant to carry prices over the $100 mark in my opinion for fear of another collapse like we had int he last 12 months.

Cash for Clunkers Program and Next Week

2009-06-19T07:32:00.000-07:00

It's Friday again so another look at the week ahead, but first I want to talk a little about the Cash For Clunkers Program that was just approved by the government.

Cash for Clunkers Program
The Program today was approved by the Senate and just needs Obama to sign it into law. It gives consumers with cars that get less than 18 miles per gallon the ability to turn them in for a $3,500 or $4,500 cash credit. This could be huge for the economy, and will also make a lot of environmentalists happy. It might be enough for me to consider buying into some auto stocks. Although, "Cash for Clunkers," will not save the auto industry by itself, it could pave the way for quite a nice rebound. Those companies which make the more fuel efficient vehicles should see the most benefit. Only if the 300 Mile per gallon car, the Aptera was selling yet.

Next Weeks Economic Data

- Jun 23 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales May
- Jun 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders May
- Jun 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders, Ex-Transportation May
- Jun 24 10:00 AM New Home Sales May
- Jun 24 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 06/19
- Jun 24 2:15 PM FOMC Rate Decision
- Jun 25 8:30 AM Initial Claims 06/20
- Jun 25 8:30 AM Q1 GDP - Final Q1
- Jun 26 8:30 AM Personal Income May
- Jun 26 8:30 AM Personal Spending
- Jun 26 8:30 AM PCE Core May
- Jun 26 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev

A Few of Next Weeks Earnings releases:

Walgreens - Monday
Oracle - Tuesday
Nike - Wednesday
RedHat - Wednesday
Rite Aid - Wednesday
Wyeth - Wednesday

10 Homes Between $99 - $10,000

2009-06-18T08:11:00.000-07:00

I heard a lot about homes, especially in Detroit selling for under $10,000, and a few under $1000. I thought it was a joke, so I did a bit of research, and was amazed at what I found. Here are just a few of the cheap homes I found.

$99 - Detroit Michigan
Alright I know it looks crappy, and needs a lot of work, but for a price that you'd pay for a nice dinner for 2 you can have a 1100 square foot home with 3 bedrooms, and the land that it sits on at 13960 Marlowe St.

$250 - Detroit Michigan
Another steal? It doesn't look great on the outside, and probably not on the inside either, but for $250 this home, built in 1920 and located on 9750 Bryden St seems like a good buy. Has 3 Bedrooms and 1 bath, and is 858 square feet. >>>More details

$500 - Detroit Michigan
How can you go wrong with this 4 bedroom, 1700 Square foot home on 15486 Ardmore St in Detroit? With a 30 year fixed rate mortgage you'd pay about $3 a month for this beauty. Ok, maybe it;s not a beauty but $500????

$500 - Detroit Michigan
Wow, what a steal. This home which is located in downtown Detroit can be had for less than you'd pay for a new laptop. With 2 Bedrooms and 1 bath, and 850 square feet, how can you go wrong. The outside looks nice at least.

$4,400 - Pontiac Michigan
This one actually looks like it's not all that old or dilapidated. It's only 500 square feet, and has 2 BR's and 1 Bathroom, but for a price lower than that of a Really nice Plasma TV, how can you go wrong?

$4,900 - Flint Michigan
Located on 5317 Dupont Street, this home built in 1950 is 781 Square feet with 2 Bedrooms and one bath. Not a bad buy if you are a handyman. The outside seems old, but workable.

$6,500 - Flint Michigan
This home on 2621 Wisner Street, in the hurting town of Flint, is goign for a steal. Has 821 square feet of living area and 2 bedrooms. Built in 1956. More details can be found at: Cheap Home

$9,900 - Detroit Michigan
Is it me or does this actually look like a home that would sell in the $100k range in any other area. At 1500 square feet, this monster of a home seems like a sure steal. >>>More Info

$9,900 - Minneapolis Minn.
This 2 story home is an old one, but with with 3 Bedrooms, and 1100 square feet of living area in the heart of Minneapolis, this 109 year old (Built in 1900) home could be a gem if fixed up.

$10,000 - Lansing Michigan
This Home, built in 1906, on 1101 N Larch Street, could be a gem at $10k. It features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, a full basement, and a 1.5 car garage. It is entirely brick, and judging from the pictures isn't in all that bad condition on the outside, at least.

Stocks to Protect Against Inflation

2009-06-16T17:50:00.000-07:00

Inflation is all but certain in this economy. The government has interest rates set as close to 0 as you can get, plus they are buying up treasuries. Sooner or later, the printing press's will have to be put to work, and with that, comes inflation. I, by no means, expect to see hyper inflation, or even inflation rivaling that which we saw in the 70's and 80's, however, we will have it, and it will be strong in my opinion.

So, what does one look for when investing in stocks that will protect you against inflation? Well, first and foremost, the stock market is not a terrible place to have your money when inflation is upon us. Inflation is a rise in prices. When prices rise, that means it is likely that your stocks will be earning more money. What you want to look for are stocks which are quickly able to adjust prices, as well as companies which are not effected by the rising costs of raw materials. You want companies which have fixed costs such as machinery, real estate, or labor, rather then those that rely on a lot of buying of materials. You also want to look at companies which sell food, beer, wine, cigarettes, and oil. Here are just a few:

ConocoPhillips (COP)
They have a business that is tied more towards the actual oil price then most of their competition.

Molson Coors (TAP)
They rely on less raw materials then their competition. That;s why maybe their beer is usually more watery. Might not be good for the taste buds, but during times of inflation, their costs rise less than their revenue.

Eli Lilly (LLY)
They make important and vital drugs. Their dividend yield is 5.8%, and people don't stop buying drugs they need to survive when inflation hits.

Remember to diversify your holdings and don't just invest in stocks. Keep some cash on the sidelines so you can react to any changing conditions, and also consider a small amount of gold or silver as a precaution to unforeseen economic events.

How Twitter, Iran, and #iranelection Is Changing Media for Good

2009-06-15T18:40:00.000-07:00

I don't usually blog about much other then the Economy, Finance, and Business related topics here, however given that this is quite a big story, and is somewhat related to business I had to do a quick post about the changing lines in the Media world.

Twitter and #iranelection
In ten years from now we may look back at this Iranian election mess and say, "that's when media distribution changed forever." That's because Twitter has shown us how much more informative and valuable it is compared to the traditional news outlets such as CNN. Anyone who goes to Twitter and searched for #iranelection will see a feed of hundreds of new tweets every couple minutes, many from people inside Tehran Iran with their smartphones posting continual updates of what they are seeing. It is really quite amazing how fast news can spread. Pictures taking by Iranian tweeters are hitting twitter hours before any traditional news outlet releases them. News of violence, deaths, and unrest in Iran are being published seconds after they occur for the world to see.

How Twitter and #iranelection is Helping Iranians
Not only is Twitter changing the media sphere for good, but it is also having a tremendous impact on Iranian citizens who are impacted by the mess of this election. Iran has been blocking local IPs from accessing News sites, Facebook, and even Twitter. American's and people in other countries have been setting up proxy servers and trying to get the information to the Iranians who which to access the information that their Government has been blocking. Twitter is in effect helping to spread freedom of speech and democracy throughout the world.

3 Possible Scenarios for The Bull Stock Market

2009-06-14T19:45:00.000-07:00

Over the last 3 months we have seen the major US markets rise almost 40%. That is an unprecedented increase in stock prices, one that any investor would love to have in a 5 year period, much less only 3 months. Investors however are now asking, "what's next?" Below are 3 arguments and my personal opinion on their likelihoods of happening:

The Market Is Overbought and Sells off for Big Losses, Dow Back to 7000
It is possible that the market has gotten too far ahead of the economy. The markets are usually 6 months ahead of the economy, so right now it's pretty much saying that a recovery will be in the works within 6 months. A 40% gain in only 3 months is staggering, and even if things were looking amazing for the economy such a gain is hard to maintain without some pullback. Could we pull back into the 7000-7500 range for the dow?
I give this a 20% chance of happening.

We level Off but maintain current levels for the next few months?
Even though the market has risen quite a bit, the optimism and good values keep things steady and in a range of 8500-9000 for the next few months until we get more solid news on the status of the recession. A mix of good and bad news will keep things bouncing around in a rather narrow range until August or September.
I give this a 45% chance of happening.

Good news continues to keep the Market Rising, perhaps to 10,000 - 10,500 by September.
With stocks that were way undersold, still being cheap, and news continuing to mount that the recession is all but over, the markets could react favorably. Sure we have gone up 40% in 3 months, but in order to get to level we were at before the whole Lehman Brothers mess, we would still have to rise another 25-30% from were we are at right now. With a mixture of Good news, and companies reporting earnings better then expected for the 3rd quarter, we could see the dow approach the 10,000 mark or even higher by September.
I give this a 35% chance of happening.

Iran: Hossein Moussavi Win May Help the Markets

2009-06-12T06:39:00.000-07:00

Once again we have hit the end of the week, and that can mean only one thing. Our traditional end of week look ahead. This week has been pretty flat in terms of the stock market. We did get some more encouraging news when we found that new unemployment forms were not as high as expected. In addition to the whole array of economic news we expect next week, we should also get results from Iran on their National election. Right now it looks as though, Mir Hossein Moussavi, who is friendlier to the West, may beat out the President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Although the Nuclear ambitions of Iran may not change with either candidate, a victory for Moussavi could affect the markets a bit positively. Below is the list of data that we will be receiving next week:

- Jun 15 8:30 AM NY Empire Manufacturing Index Jun
- Jun 15 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Apr
- Jun 16 8:30 AM Building Permits May
- Jun 16 8:30 AM Core PPI May
- Jun 16 8:30 AM Housing Starts May
- Jun 16 8:30 AM PPI May
- Jun 16 8:30 AM Building Permits May
- Jun 16 8:30 AM PPI May
- Jun 16 8:30 AM Core PPI May
- Jun 16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization May
- Jun 16 9:15 AM Industrial Production May
- Jun 17 8:30 AM Core CPI May
- Jun 17 8:30 AM CPI May
- Jun 17 10:30 AM Crude Inventories
- Jun 17 10:35 AM Crude Inventories
- Jun 18 8:30 AM Initial Claims 06/13
- Jun 18 10:00 AM Leading Indicators May
- Jun 18 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Jun

I will be paying close attention to the Building Permits number on Tuesday, as well as the initial claims of unemployment on Friday, as both could show that the economy is well on the way to recovery. If the Initial claims number continues to slide downward, we may be in pretty good shape. As for Next weeks earnings reports, there are not too many. I would venture to guess that next week is one of the deadest week for earnings all year, or at least in the quarter.

Price of Oil - Where are Oil Prices Headed?

2009-06-11T07:29:00.000-07:00

One of the driving forces behind any economy are it's energy prices. Pretty much every business around the globe is affected directly or indirectly by the price of oil. This is why the huge fluctuations in Oil prices we have seen over the last 2-3 years are quite turbulent for the economy in general. In the last 3 months alone we have seen the price per barrel of oil rise by about 80%. That's almost a 1% gain per day over the last 3 months. This is after we saw Oil prices fall from $150 a barrel all the way down to $35. Take a look at the chart below to see how much prices have increased since the bottom of the recession.

Will Oil Prices Hurt Our Recovery?
This is a tough question to answer. As long as prices don't come close to the highs of last year I don't personally see it being a major dagger in the heart of the recovery. We are in the Summer months, and some price increases were all but guaranteed. We are still at about half of the highs that we saw last year, so we should be thankful of that.

Where are Oil Prices Headed?
You could ask a hundred experts this question and get a hundred different answers. In my opinion, It would surprise me if we saw prices go above $100 a barrel within the next year. The world economies are still fragile, and demand is not as high as they were before the recession, nor will it be for quite some time. As long as OPEC does not cut production any further I think prices should level off in the $60-$80 range for the next 12-18 months at least.

Save Money on Heating and Cooling Your Home

2009-06-10T05:57:00.000-07:00

With all the talk recently of cleaner greener energy use, I thought I'd start a series here with different ways to save energy, since saving energy also means saving quite a bit of money, something we all can use in this economy. So, here is a short list of things you can do to save money and energy with the heating and air conditioner systems of your home:

- Clean or Replace Filters on your furnace at least every 2 months
Dust buildup can lead to less air making it's way into your home, meaning your furnace will need to run harder, longer. It can also be a carbon monoxide hazard.

- Install New Smart Thermostats
New thermostats allow the owner to program them so that at certain times of the day, according to ones schedule, the temperature can be switched higher or lower. It is pointless to heat or cool a home when you are not there.

- Insulate heating ducts in unheated areas such like the attic and crawlspaces and keep them in good repair to prevent heat loss.
Up to 60% of the heat produced by your furnace can be lost by poorly insulated ducts. Considering that half of a families electric bill can be used on heating their home in the winter, that means the average bill could be reduced about $30 a month with proper duct insulation.

- Install and Use Fans during the summer months.
A fan causes a windchill effect. Having a fan on will allow you to increase your thermostat in the summer 4 degrees F, and still feel just as comfortable. Also, in the Winter, a fan can be used to circulate the warm air that has risen to the ceiling down toward where you are.

I will try and continue this series with other energy tips throughout the next few weeks. I thought that since we are in the Summer months here in the US, I would provide the Heating and Cooling section first.

5 Money and Investing Misconceptions

2009-06-08T15:48:00.000-07:00

Since there isn't all that much to discuss about the markets yet this week, I thought I'd write a little post about some of the misconceptions I have heard throughout the years about finances, money, and investing in general. Here they are The 5 Money Misconception:

#1 Investing in Stocks Is the Same as Gambling
This is the furthest from the truth as you can get. Over the last 50 years the Dow has had an average return of close to 11% per year. That is a heck of a lot more money then your average return at a casino which is guaranteed to be a loss if you play long enough. Investing in stocks you know nothing about for the short term is the same as gambling, but investing in stocks which you have researched, and diversified, and leaving the money in them for a few years will almost always have a positive return. Diversification and patients are key. Even those people who invested in a diverse portfolio right before the market crash of 1929 would have has gains if they held long enough.

#2 The Misconception between "Good Debt" an "Being in Debt".
There is a major difference between being in debt, and having debt. Being in Debt is never positive. You are in debt if your assets you own are valued less then the assets you owe. This situation is never good, and it means you are spending more money then you are making, and will likely lead to all sorts of problems. On the other hand, having debt means owing money. For instance you may take out a mortgage for a house. You may owe $200,000, but likely the home value is greater than that $200,000. Even if you have cash to buy a home, sometimes it's better to take the mortgage (debt) and invest the cash in an investment vehicle that yields more than the rate you are paying on the mortgage. In that case, the debt is "Good Debt".

#3 The Wealthiest Americans are those Who Work Hard at their 9 to 5 Jobs
The facts are that it is nearly impossible to become very wealthy working for someone else. Over 90% of Americans with a net worth of over $8 million got their wealth by either starting up their own business or an inheritance.

#4 Money is Only for Buying Stuff
Most people think that the sole purpose of money is to buy things to make us happy. The people who are the happiest though are those that save money. Wondering why? Some of the biggest problems we face revolve around money. Not what we can and can not buy, but our long term piece of mind. Those people who save money and invest it, are much happier, healthier, and much more worry free then those who send their money more liberally. Buying something may make us happy for a few hours or days, but knowing that we have no financial obligations, and have financial freedom can make us happy for a lifetime. 50% of all Marriage conflicts revolve around money problems.

#5 If all the Experts are Investing in Something, it must be a Great Investment
The facts are that those who stray from the herd are usually the ones to succeed. This means buying when everyone else seems to be selling (case in point, when I recommended buying into the market in the 7000 range a few months back when the media was filled with gloom and doom.), and selling when everyone else seems to be buying. Take for instance the housing bubble. All the experts were telling us how great a value real estate still was, even though in some areas prices had doubled in only 5-6 years time. Mass buying or selling usually results in a market correction that will likely cause a bubble to collapse. Be your own person. Think for yourself.

Mortgage Interest Rate History

2009-06-07T15:19:00.000-07:00

Well It's Monday so I thought we'd do another chart here, as I love looking at charts filled with lots of good information. The chart/graph below shows the various types of mortgage rates for the last 17 years:

Mortgage Rate History
I'm concentrating on the Red and orange lines, which are the 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgage rates. If you just take a quick glance at them, you can clearly see that we are at the lowest rates, by far, in the last 17 years. In my opinion, if you can refinance your mortgage, this IS the time to do it. Don't wait. I personally feel this will be just about the lowest rates many will see in perhaps their lifetime. We are about 40% lower the the highs we saw in the early 1990's, and probably won't be going down any further from here.

Buy Outright, or Take a Mortgage?
Many people who have the cash to buy a home will buy the home outright. Sure, this will give you the piece of mind, knowing you owe nothing, and will likely never have a worry in the world about your home's affordability, however, it may not be the smartest move right now. If you can get a mortgage for 5%, it may be best to take it regardless if you can buy the home outright or not. Why? Inflation will likely go up quite a bit in the coming years. The FED will likely raise interest rates by quite a but over the next few years, meaning bank Certificates of deposits could possibly be paying an interest rate, in 2-3 years, higher then what you can take a mortgage out for today. f you can borrow $500,000 at 5% and get a CD or bond for 6%, you are making a cool $5000 a year profit. Just something to think about.

Conclusion
In my opinion, we have clearly struck a floor with interest rates, and anyone who hesitates on refinancing now, will likely regret it pretty soon.

Week of June 9th - Economic Events

2009-06-05T07:51:00.000-07:00

Well it's Friday again, and that means it's time for an overview and look ahead at next week. This week has been phenominal if you are long the market in any sector pretty much. Much of the data we received this week has indicated that the recession is clearly on it's way out, and the predictions of 3rd Quarter growth seem like they will be dead on. Today we found out the total number of new jobless claims has fallen considerable. Although the unemployment rate has risen to 9.4%, it seems as though we may not get to the 10% mark that I thought we may. Companies like Walmart are starting to hire again as they expand, and most companies who are going to lay off workers already have. I could honestly see the unemployment rate turning lower sometime in September if things keep up. Below is a list of the data we will get next week:

- Jun 9 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Apr
- Jun 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Apr
- Jun 10 10:30 AM Crude Inventories
- Jun 10 10:35 AM Crude Inventories
- Jun 10 2:00 PM Treasury Budget May
- Jun 10 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book
- Jun 11 8:30 AM Retail Sales May
- Jun 11 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto May
- Jun 11 8:30 AM Initial Claims
- Jun 11 10:00 AM Business Inventories Apr
- Jun 12 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. May
- Jun 12 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil May
- Jun 12 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel Jun

I am going to pay close attention to the crude inventories, especially since the price of oil is on a major rebound. Also the Fed's beige book and Business inventories should clarify the economic conditions even more. As for Companies reporting earnings, there are not too many big names reporting next week. That will change in the coming month. Could we see the Dow break the 9000 mark sometime this month? I certainly think so!

74 Forums About Making Money Online

2009-06-03T17:33:00.000-07:00

I have been running internet business's since I was 15 years old. I started off selling baseball cards on a bulletin board (forum) on Prodigy, and now have dozens of websites in a range of categories, selling all sorts of stuff. If it wasn't for internet forums, I would never have had the inspiration of knowledge to do the things I currently do.

Webmaster Related (Forums dedicated to earning money running and managing websites. SEO tips, webmaster dialogue, and more)

- 1. DigitalPoint.com - Webmaster community where one can learn to make money running a website. Many great Tips and tricks

- 2. SitePoint.com - A webmaster haven. Many great internet gurus are here.

- 3. WebMasterWorld.com - Another Webmaster forum which talks a lot about Adsense. Big name players are here including Google employees themselves.

- 4. SearchEngineWatch.com - Really good section about Google. Discusses all types of SEO related topics

- 5. Ozzu.com - Pretty Much discusses everything related to running and hosting a Website

- 6. V7n.com - Focused on Site design, with a nice marketplace and SEO folder.

- 7. HtmlForums.com - Everything you need to know about Html, programming, graphics, e-commerce and more.

- 8. Devshed.com - Probably the most comprehensive Programming and development forum online. Folders for all programming languages.

- 9. SeoChat.com - Focused almost completely on SEO. Some really smart people with a lot of great insight post here.

- 10. WebTalkForums.com - Focused almost completely on website promotion and development.

- 11. WebDeveloper.com - Generally about programming and scripting websites with sections on domain names, and other money related topics.

- 12. TheAdminZone.com - Focused on forum administrators, and how to make money with an internet forum.

- 13. CreateBlog.com - Focused completely on website coding and designing

- 14. Cre8aSiteForums.com - Everything from Website development to monetization discussed here.

- 15. Daniweb.com - Website creation and marketing discussed here.

- 16. TalkFreelance.com - Very Large webmaster marketplace, and huge Freelancer community.

- 17. BloggerForum.com - Focused on the Blogging community and how to monetize a blog.

- 18. WebHostingTalk.com - Geared towards hosting resellers but has some relevant sections on making money selling hosting and running a website. Very active.

- 19. HostingForum.ca - Canadian version of Webhostingtalk. Focus's mainly on website scripting.

- 20. HostingDiscussion.com - Focused almost completely on website hosting and selling hosting for a profit.

- 21. Forum4Designers.com - Really good forum for coding, html, and graphics.

- 22. Webmaster-Talk.com - Pretty much dedicated to anything webmaster related, but focused on the coding and design aspects.

- 23. IwebTool.com - General Webmaster talk and marketplace'

- 24. WebExpertz.net - Geared mostly towards Java script programming, with a nice section about making money online.

- 25. HighRanking.com - Spans all webmaster topics, with a really good Internet marketing section

- 26. WebMasterForumsOnline.com - Not as active as some of the others, but has a nice marketplace section for buying and selling web services and sites.

- 27. WebMastersHelp.com - Pretty much a quieter form of Sitepoint. Moderators seem active but not as many active members.

- 28. SeoGuy.com - Rather quiet, but there are some SEO experts posting here.

- 29. FrontPageWebmaster.com - A Webmaster learning community. Many different programming language topics, as well as a site critique seciton.

- 30. UkWebMasterWorld.com - Moderately crowded. Based in the Uk, and has a great business section.

- 31. SearchEngineForums.com - Some really good folders about Google optimization and Google Adsense.

- 32. WebDesignForums.net - Everything related to creating a website.

- 33. WebForumz.com - Large selection of webmaster related topics.

- 34. IHelpYou.com - Almost completely about SEO. They have a really good Help and Advice section.

- 35. SeRoundtable.com - Just made the cutoff in terms of traffic, but the good Google related section gave it a bump.

- 36. SeoBlackHat.com - Private forum for discussing the often criticized black hat techniques of getting search engine traffic.

- 37. NetPond.com - The largest forum for adult webmasters.

- 38. AdultWebMasterinfo.com - The second largest adult webmaster related site.

Miscellaneous (These are general categories, but all list below are forums which will give you a ton of information on various online revenue streams, and opportunities):

- 39. Talkgold.com - This is our own forum. Pretty much covers every Money making opportunity there is online from Hyips, to Forex, to Running a website to blogging.

- 40. GeekVillage.com - Really good section for making money online, as well as other related topics.

- 41. RevenueSource.com - Discusses different ways to make money online. A variety of topics.

- 42. WebLife.org - Not as busy as it once was., but a lot of good topics and moderators.

- 43. DnLodge.com - Focused on a variety of topics including domain names and site design.

- 44. FreeWebSpace.net - Nice section on internet advertising, as well as design and Free web hosting.

- 45. MarketingChat.org - Barely made the list because of low traffic, but there is a lot of great information about several money making topics here.

- 46. TheFreeAdForum - Place for webmasters to advertise their sites and opportunities to make money.

- 47. FreeAdvertisingForum.com - Great place for webmasters to post ads to their site for free.

- 48. SiteOwnersForums.com - A variety of topics including a "Making Money on the Web" section

- 49. AkaMarketing.com - Covers a large assortment of webmaster money making topics.

- 50. RolClub.com - Focused on Iraqi Dinar investing via the internet, with sections for hyips and autosurfs as well.

- 51. EWealth.com - Focused on a variety of topics. Anything related to making money online is discussed here.

- 52. MoneyTalkPro.com - Focused on risky online programs like HYIPs and Autosurfs, but discusses a variety of other money related topics.

- 53. MoneyMakerGroup.com - Another forum dedicated more towards High yields investing and risky programs. Also has various other money making topics.

- 54. DreamTeamMoney.com - Focus's on Hyips and Get to to surf programs, and has a unique points system.

- 55. HotSurfs.com - Focus's on Hyips, but also discusses a variety of other money making topics.

- 56. Code4Gold.com - Focus's on E-currencies, Hyips, and webmaster related issues. Admins are not too fond of Talkgold, but this list isn't biased ;) It deserves to be here.

Domain Name Related: (Whether you are buying and selling domain names, or simply investing in them, developing them, and putting ads on them, there are a whole array of ways to make money in the domain name industry)

- 57. DnForum.com - The Grand Daddy of all Domain name related forums. They do have various paid membership upgrades. Learn to Invest in Domain names.

- 58. NamePros.com - The second most popular Domain name oriented forum. Greta place for appraisals. No paid memberships like DNForum.

- 59. DomainState.com - Not as busy, but they have a great News section to see what past domains sold for.

- 60. DiscussNames.com - Focused on Domain name Appraisals and buying and selling of of Domains for profit.

- 61. DomainForums.com - A quieter version of DNForum.com.

- 62. AcornDomains.co.uk - A UK based domain name appraisal, and marketplace discussion.

- 63. DDBoard.com - Various webmaster topics discussed here with a bulk being domain name oriented.

- 64. IdnForums.com - Domain name discussion with folders based in 11 different languages.

- 65. DnsScoop/com - Large Domain name marketplace section as well as other webmaster related topics.

Affiliate/Internet Marketing Related: (Want to sell others peoples products and get as much as 75% commission. These forums teach you the ins and outs of the industry)

- 66. ABestWeb - Dedicated to everything related to Affiliate marketing. Largest Affiliate forum online

- 67. WarriorForum.com - One of My Favorite forums related to Internet Marketing in General.

- 68. AssociatePrograms.com - Really good forum for affiliate marketing and earning online.

- 69. WickedFire.com - All about internet marketing and generating traffic to your website.

- 70. Affiliates4u.com - Discusses ways to earn through affiliates and other means of website ad publishing.

- 71. 5StarAffiliatePrograms.com - Very Organized affiliate related discussions.

- 72. AffiliatePrograms.com - General Affiliate marketing discussion.

- 73. ClickBankSuccessForum.com - Really great community for people who sell ebooks via clickbank.

- 74. Im4Newbies - A WarriorForum for people just getting started in internet marketing. Good information found here.

This list is just the tip of the iceberg, however they are the main ones that most of the online entrepreneurs use.

Whats the Better Investment Now - Stocks or Bonds?

2009-06-03T06:58:00.000-07:00

With the stock market up nearly 30% from it's lows only 3 months ago, many investors are speculating that it may now be time to consider investing in Bonds, which could pay off better then stocks int he long run. That's at least what some experts are saying. Me, on the other hand, disagree.

Bonds:
Bonds are still yielding extremely low rates of return compared to the past. The 10 year Treasury is paying just about 3.6%. That's not terrible, but you have to consider that inflation could easily reach 3.6% within the next year, and likely will go a bit higher than that. If inflation strikes like many experts think, we could see 10 year Treasuries paying over 6% easily, meaning those lowly 3.6% bonds you purchase today will be worth about 60% then. I, in fact, do like some of the more risky corporate bonds, where you can get a return as high as 10% on companies which really are not in that bad shape.

Stocks
Right Now, even though the market is up 30% from it's lows, I am still a stock guy. Although I do own some bonds, I believe that the stockmarket is the place to be. Why in the world would you buy a 3.6% Treasury bond that is locked in for 10 years, when you can buy a stock like Verizon (VZ) which has a 6.25% dividend, you can sell whenever you like, and will likely increase it's share price over the long run with or without inflation. If you are looking for the stable return of bonds, then buy some of the blue chip dividend stocks like Intel, BP, Pfizer, Bristol Myers Squibb, Altria, etc. You will get a pretty reliable stable return higher than 3.6% plus have the stock price gain to look forward to as well.

Conclusion:
Stocks are still an excellent buy. With the economy picking up finally, most dividend stocks which have yet to cut their dividends will likely be safe from here on out.

Historic PE Ratios Compared to Interest Rates

2009-06-02T07:05:00.000-07:00

I don't have all that much news to bring to you all today so I thought I'd take a look at another chart. Below is graph of Interest rates vs the PE Ratios (Price to earning ratios of the S & P 500) over the last 120 years in the United States:

Like I said before I love looking at graphs and charts because they can tell you more than an entire 10 page essay could in just a few seconds. As you can see, we are currently at a pretty high average PE ratio, but having said this, it is so much lower then it was just a few years ago. You also must account for the fact that there is now optimism in growth, so a higher than average PE ratio is not all that bad. The current graph, however, leads me to believe that we may see a leveling off of the Dow at around 9000-9200, where it may stay and hover around for some time until better earning reports come out.

For those of you not familiar with PE ratios, it basically is the return a stock has over a year. If you have a PE ratio of 20, that means it will take the company 20 years to make a profit equal to it's current share price. Divide 100 by the PE ratio and you will get the rate of return the company is making. For instance 100/20 = 5, which means investing in the stock will provide a 5% annual return. Looking at the chart above you can see that in 1982, PE ratios were low, while interest rates were high. Is is because people could make a ton of interest just buying bonds, so why invest into stocks that have a yield lower then bonds do, at greater risk.

It should be interesting to see, how inflation could hamper the recovery of the US stock market should it go up by more then a few basis points.

General Motors Bankrupt, Household Income Up

2009-06-01T06:34:00.000-07:00

What a start to the day! Not only is it the first day of the second half of the year, but we are also getting all kinds of news and seeing movement in various investments.

GM Bankruptcy
General Motors today filed for bankruptcy protection. The United states government, yes us tax payers, will own about 60% of the US auto maker. Although a bankruptcy is far from good news, the markets were expecting it, and now that it has happened, it's out of the way, and any uncertainty is finally lifted.

Gold Approaches $1000 Mark
For the third time in the last 18 months or so, Gold has approached the $1000 mark. Helped by rising energy costs and a lower dollar, prices could soar past that mark. Many experts predict that if Gold can hold above $1000 for a third time, and make even the slightest move above it, we could be headed for a Gold rally not seen in years.

Technology Booming
The E3 Video Game conference is today, which means we will likely see some new technological advances in the Video Game market. This along with the Fact that Microsoft's new search engine, Bing, has launched this morning, and Google announced a possible game changer of a communications setup, called Google Wave, last week, the tech sector is on a role. Expect this to continue into next weeks Apple conference.

Personal Income Rose
For the month of April, Personal income rose an unexpected 0.5%. This was well above the drop of 0.2% most economists were predicting. Yet another signal things are finally turning around. As a side note though, the saving's rate increased, meaning consumption decreased just a bit.

The rest of this week should continue to be interesting. Back in a March post I predicted that the Dow will be in the 9000-9500 range by August. That is actually looking very possible right now.

Next Weeks Market News Makers - Unemployment to 9.2%

2009-05-29T06:38:00.000-07:00

It's Friday again, so that means we look at what one can expect from the markets next week. This week has been pretty good overall. We saw today that the first quarter GDP decline was only 5.7% instead of the initially thought 6.1% decline. Experts also predict a much flatter decline for the 2nd quarter and finally an increase in GDP for Quarter 3. By the forth quarter, experts predict a 1.8% increase in GDP. So what on tap for next week? Here is the economic Calendar for the first week in June, 2009:

- Jun 1 8:30 AM Personal Income
- Jun 1 8:30 AM Personal Spending
- Jun 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending
- Jun 1 10:00 AM ISM Index
- Jun 2 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales
- Jun 2 2:00 PM Auto Sales
- Jun 2 2:00 PM Truck Sales
- Jun 3 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change
- Jun 3 10:00 AM Factory Orders
- Jun 3 10:00 AM ISM Services
- Jun 3 10:30 AM Crude Inventories
- Jun 3 10:35 AM Crude Inventories
- Jun 4 8:30 AM Initial Claims 05/30
- Jun 4 8:30 AM Productivity-Rev. Q1
- Jun 4 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs Q1
- Jun 5 8:30 AM Average Workweek
- Jun 5 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings
- Jun 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls
- Jun 5 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate
- Jun 5 2:00 PM Consumer Credit

The data that I will be looking at that I think could move the markets quite a bit are, the construction spending data, which could signal a turnaround in the housing market, as well as the Unemployment data. The Unemployment rate was at 8.9% at the end of April, and will likely increase to about 9.2% for the end of May. Consumer credit is also another big piece of info we will get by Friday, and should let us know in a bit more detail, just how backed up the credit markets are. Another thing to note are the forex markets in which the dollar has continued to fall this week, leading Gold and other commodities to have a nice run.

Unemployment Rates for the Last 20 Years

2009-05-28T07:26:00.001-07:00

Today we got word that the the pace of Unemployment for the month decreased a bit. That's not that great news considering it still increased by more then 600,000 individuals. Anyway, On this Thursday I thought we'd have a look at the US unemployment rate for the last 20 years. I like graphs and charts, because like they say "a picture is worth a thousand words." Graphs tell multiple stories and quickly allow you to visualize just how bad things may be right now:

Looking at the chart above, which is about 45 days old, it is really daunting how fast the unemployment rate rose. Much faster then any time in the last 20 years, or last 60 years for that matter. Another thing sticks out is year and a half from 2007-2008 where the unemployment rate was under 4%. At the time we didn't realize how good we had it. Now, as the rate approaches 10%, probably sometime by the year's end, we look back just 18 months and wish we were even close to those rates. The good thing though is that we likely won't go much higher then 10%, and soon after will begin adding jobs. Will we see a rate of 3.5% like we did 2 years ago, anytime soon? I doubt it, but by late 2011 I wouldn't be surprised seeing the rate in the 5-6% range, which isn't half bad.

Recession over By 2nd Half of this Year

2009-05-27T06:35:00.000-07:00

I know my blog is always pretty optimistic about the economy, so for those of you who are pessimists, you may want to skip this post. Anyway, In past entries I had predicted a bottom to the market when it hit 6400, I predicted that unemployment will begin decreasing in early 2010, and the recession would be over by the second half of this year. Well, it looks like some of the experts agree.

Recession over?
A panel of 45 of the nations leading economists, have predicted that the 2nd Quarter of this year, the one we are in now, will still see negative economic growth. However, the last 2 quarters of this year, June onward, will see positive growth from the United States economy. What does that mean? The recession's end is in sight. A full 75% of the economists polled felt the 3rd quarter of this year would see positive GDP growth. Don't get too excited though. The majority of economists polled felt that although growth will finally make it's presence, the rate of growth will be small, and well below the average growth rate of the US economy. The growth rate however will be at about average by the time 2010 rolls around.

Job Predictions
The Panel of economist's average forecasted unemployment rate by the end of 2009 is 9.8%. This is quite a high number, but in 18 months, by the end of 2010, this rate will have dropped to 9.3% and continue falling at a faster pace thereafter for several years. Unemployment is a lagging indicator, so it will usually turn around about 6 months after the general economy. This puts the turnaround somewhere around January or February of 2010.

The Real Estate Market.
Out of the 45 panelist polled, 33 thought that the housing market will bottom in the next month or 2. The negative news is that Home prices will remain at a depressed level for at east another couple years, most experts believe.

Overall however, the economy looks to be getting stronger. The doom and gloom predictions are dying out, and a more optimistic view, like mine are taking hold. How do we know people are becoming more optimistic? The consumer confidence indicator jumped 14 points in the last month.

North Koreas Effect on the Economy

2009-05-26T06:41:00.001-07:00

North Korea has been in the news quite a bit over this extended Holiday weekend here in the United States. Not only did they conduct an underground nuclear test over the weekend, but last evening they test fired 3 short range missiles, after the strong condemnation of the nuclear test by the world governments. So, What kind of economic impact will this have if any if things do continue to spin out of control, which probably won't happen?

Short Term the Dollar Will Rise, Gold will Rise in relation to other Currencies - The dollar is a safe haven when there are times of uncertainty in the rest of the world. Gold also is a great place to keep your money in uncertain political times, but the rise of the dollar may make Gold's rise a little less significant for us Americans.

Long Term The Dollar will Fall - If this thing gets drug out to where military action on our part was required, this means that there would be even more massive government spending, leading to even more national debt. Debt causes the dollar's power to decline in the long run

Stock Market
In my opinion this whole mess may give us all more time to invest at low prices. I highly doubt this will turn into an all out war, but even if it does, government spending is usually a plus for stock prices. If it doesn't progress much further, then stock prices remain depressed for a few extra weeks, and then shoot back up to where they would have been without a North Korea problem on our hands.

Conclusion:
Overall, I'd recommend not changing your investing strategy at all if you are investing in US securities. If you are an Japanese, or South Korean investing in their local markets, however, an investment strategy shift may be in order.

The Economic Week in Review

2009-05-22T06:59:00.001-07:00

Whelp, it's Friday Again, and that means it's time for the weekly recap, and look ahead for next week. This week wasn't all that great. Economic data sort of put things into perspective. The economy is still in terrible shape, but things do look like they are improving somewhat. People who lost there jobs in the last few months are not finding new work, even though the number of newly unemployed people filing claims are shrinking. I think we will see an Unemployment rate of 10% by Late July or early August. One of the problems complicating matters for the unemployed is that most companies are not offering any type of compensation plan, leaving the unemployed extremely vulnerable The housing data also was not all that great. Foreclosures continue to rise, driving the market values down dramatically in many locations across the country.

So, what can we expect next week? There will certainly be some interesting data put out. Below is a list of the economic data to be released next week along with the date and time:

- May 26 9:00 AM S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index
- May 26 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence
- May 27 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales
- May 27 10:30 AM Crude Inventories
- May 28 8:30 AM Durable Goods Orders
- May 28 8:30 AM Durables, Ex-Transport
- May 28 8:30 AM Initial Claims
- May 28 10:00 AM New Home Sales
- May 28 11:00 AM Crude Inventories
- May 29 8:30 AM GDP - Prelim. Q1
- May 29 8:30 AM GDP Deflator Q1
- May 29 9:45 AM Chicago PMI May
- May 29 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev

I will be paying close attention on the 29th to see what the Preliminary GDP numbers look like. Those numbers could really move the markets in one direction or the other. As for Stock's Earnings reports, there are not too many major companies reporting next week. We are sort of in the dead season in terms of earnings.

My General Negative Opinion on MLM's

2009-05-21T07:09:00.000-07:00

I did a piece a few weeks back about ebooks, and how you can never really get a true review about them before ordering one from Clickbank, or any of the other ebook distributors out there. I wasn't talking about the new ebook generation of Amazon Kindles which read novels, but the first generation ebook industry which were mostly informational and learning products. Anyway, what's worse than ebooks in terms of rabid promoters, and pushers of the products are MLM's!

The Problem with MLM's
MLM's or Multi Level marketing programs are companies that allow anyone to become a distributor. Usually though, you have to pay a startup fee, or at the very least be a client yourself in order to sell. One recent MLM is the Monavie Acai Berry health drink. I won't even begin to get into what I think about Monavie, but will say that it is the perfect example of a MLM which clouds the availability of unbiased reviews. Just do a simple search for "Monavie Review" in Google, and then try to find one that is unbiased, one that is not rewritten by someone who is a distributor for the company. I am almost certain that you won't find a real review, by a real customer anywhere on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or even 5th page of Google's results. Many of the reviews may be written as if they are from an unbiased client, however, that's just a marketing ploy in order to sell more Monvie.

Lesson Learned
Basically what I'm ranting about is that you can not always use the internet, or even supposed friends for a review of a product, especially if those consumers of the product are also sellers. Be careful, and be cautious, as there are a lot of manipulative people out there, some even your friends. Money speaks louder then the truth sometimes.

Donald Trump Entering the MLM Industry - Trump Network

2009-05-20T07:17:00.000-07:00

Over the 10 years or so that I have been marketing online, I have come across all sorts of compensation plans. I've usually stayed away from MLM's (Multi Level Marketing Programs) due to the fact that I felt they were a bit scammy, as well as having products that don't usually benefit the consumer, but instead benefiting the thousands of promoters of the MLM itself.

My View towards Multi-Level marketing programs may soon change though. Donald Trump has recently announced that he will in fact be launching his very own MLM in October of 2009. You don't have to wait that long to get some of the specifics of the program though. The Trump Network will have a prelaunch where you can begin signing up to become a sales rep sometime in July of this year. The MLM will be structured around the sale of vitamins that are customized to each individual. Trump Purchased the company Ideal Health a few years back and will be using it as the backbone of the Trump Network.

Here is a short Quote from Donald Trump Himself to begin the Trump Network brochure:

America is at a crossroads.
At no time in recent history has our economy been in the state that it is today.
We’re in the midst of an economic meltdown created by Wall Street greed, financial industry ineptitude, and a multi-billion dollar government bail out of the financial system that isn’t working. The American dream has been hijacked by complacency and incompetence. My experience in real estate has taught me that the greatest opportunities exist when economic times are at their worst. That’s why, after the real estate crash of the ‘90s, I came back stronger than ever. The first thing I learned is that when times are tough, you need to hedge your bets—you need to diversify.

I'd love to hear your feedback on this company, and if you think the Trump Network will become a $1 billion + company like Donald himself claims it will.

$20.00 - Retweet This Post and win Cash Twitter

2009-05-19T07:24:00.000-07:00

I thought I would reward some of the people who read this blog on a regular basis. Considering the economy is in bad shape, everyone can use an extra $20 in cash, right? That's why I decided to do this simple Little exercise for those of you who wish to participate and win $20 in Paypal cash:

Here are the simple Rules to this Twitter Cash Giveaway:

#1 Simply Click the "retweet" button at the top of this post to retweet this blog post
#2 Once done, comment on this post with your Twitter ID
#3 Than pay a visit to our sponsors site: Talkgold
#4 At Midnight eastern time tonight May 19th, one person will be choosen at random from the blog comments and be announced within this post, with instructions on how to claim the $20 cash.

Also remember to follow us on twitter at: http://twitter.com/edbri871

If this goes well we will give away cash every week.

The Best Smart Grid Stocks

2009-05-18T06:52:00.000-07:00

Many Americans probably heard the term "Smart Grid" before, but very few know exactly what it is. Basically the smart grid is a newly designed and eventually implemented electricity grid in the United States that will allow a more technologically advanced system of electricity distribution. It will allow individuals to save money by saving on their energy consumption, and increase the reliability and safety of the electricity distribution. With the smart grid, power is no longer centralized, and instead can be stored all over the grid itself.

So there are 2 ways to play such stocks. You can look at the smaller cap stocks which will play a larger role in the creation of the grid, or you can play the larger cap, well known stocks which are going to benefit greatly from the grid deployment, but don't have a business that is totally enveloped within the Grid's success or failure. Here are a couple of each:

Smaller Companies:
Itron, Inc (ITRI) - provides a portfolio of products and services to utilities for the energy and water markets throughout the world. The Company is a provider of metering, data collection and software, which can alert people to their energy consumption changes. Itron has two business segments: Itron North America and Actaris.

ComVerge (COMV) - Comverge, Inc. is a clean energy company providing demand management solutions in the form of peaking and base load capacity to electric utilities, grid operators and associated electricity markets.

Echelon Corporation (ELON) - Echelon Corporation develops, markets, and sells system and network infrastructure products that enable various devices, such as air conditioners, appliances, electricity meters, light switches, thermostats, and valves to be made smart and inter-connected.

Larger Caps:
Cisco (CSCO) - Cisco is known for it's internet router and network business. They predict the smart grid could be worth up to $20 billion a year for 5 years for their industry.

Intel (INTC) - Intel is the world largest computer chip maker. Any grid technology out there will without a doubt need smart, innovative new computer ships in mass quantity.

Investing in these smart grid companies as well as others may not give you instant returns, but if your time horizon is 4-7 years or so, they should pay off nicely. I recommend diversifying among them all.

Economic Data Calendar - Next Week

2009-05-15T07:21:00.000-07:00

As always, on Friday morning I look over my portfolio and evaluate things. This weeks wasn't so great, but like most weeks, there aren't many changes I'd like to make. I did up my holdings in BGU which is the ETF for 3X Long Large Cap Stocks. It may fluctuate greatly over the next couple months, but in the long run it will pay off 3 times as much as the overall market. That is of course if there is not a 2700 point drop in the dow, which could be quite risky for this ETF. The next thing I do after evaluating my portfolio is I look at what is to come next week. Next week is probably going to be rather uninteresting on a macro level, however there are some pretty important companies reporting earnings. Here is the Economic Data Calendar for Next week:

- May 19 8:30 AM Building Permits
- May 19 8:30 AM Housing Starts
- May 20 10:30 AM Crude Inventories-
- May 20 10:35 AM Crude Inventories
- May 20 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes
- May 21 8:30 AM Initial Claims
- May 21 10:00 AM Leading Indicators
- May 21 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed

Tuesday's Housing starts and Building Permits data should be inetresting, and has the potential to move the markets. What abotu Earnings? Here are some of the companies reporting next week:

Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. - Tuesday
Hewlett-Packard - Tuesday
Home Depot Inc - Tuesday
Vodafone Group PLC - Tuesday
BJ's Wholesale Club - Wednesday
PetSmart - Wednesday
Target Ibnc - Wednesday
Aeropostale, Inc. - Thursday
Barnes and Noble - Thursday
Salesforce.com, Inc. - Thursday
British Airways - Friday

5 Ways to Build Back Your Wealth

2009-05-14T06:56:00.001-07:00

So your 401k plans are at levels unimaginable, your home value is probably between 50-80% of what it was just a couple years ago, and you may have either lost your job, or are on shaky ground at work. Don't fret, I'm hear to provide you a few tips on how to rebuild some of your wealth so that next time the economy crashes, you are in a much better situation. Things seem bad now, but they will get better, and in the end you will have learned a great deal about your finances. Here are 5 ways to build your wealth back up.

Build your Credit Score - In times of crisis it's always good to have a nice credit line with a low interest rate in case of an unforeseen emergency. Build your credit score, by lowering your debt to credit ratio. This means you need to pay off the debt you owe, while also trying to get a credit line increase. The more credit you have available, that you do not use, the higher your score will usually be in the long run.
Don't watch so much TV - Did you know that for every 1 hour of television you watch per week, your expenditures increase by $200 for the year? The reason for this is that we are influenced by trends on tv. If our favorite athlete or movie star is wearing a certain piece of clothing, driving a certain car in a sitcom, we are more likely to want that object.
Reevaluate your Portfolio - This is a great time to re-adjust our investment holdings. If you are in the age range where you should have a 50% stock holding and 50% bond holding, it is likely that after the recent crash, things are not 50/50 any longer. This probably means you should buy more stocks. In the long run it will even out and you will likely recover your losses
Reevaluate your Car and Homeowners Insurance Policies - Did you know that you could save about $400 a year if you raise your deductible for homeowners insurance from $500 to $5000? That may seem like a big step, but in actuality, how often have you had to put a claim in? Insurance should be there to protect from catastrophy, not the minor problems.
Refinance - This is probably one of the most overlooked ways to save a bundle of money. Did you knwo that if you were to refinance your $300,000 mortgage from a 6% rate to 5% rate, you'd save over $40,000 during the life of the loan? You'd also cut your monthly payment by abotu $350 as well. $350 a month is a nice amoutn fo money you could be saving isn;t it?

More Good News for the Economy

2009-05-12T20:12:00.000-07:00

It seems as though the economic good news keeps coming one news story at a time. Here are just a few of the bright economic news stories that I have read about in the last 24 hours:

#1 Alan Greenspan see the Housing Market Bottoming, and said that it is “very easy to see” the financial markets improving. Remember, one of the main things we need to look at to determine when the recession may end is the supply of homes on the market and how low the prices are going. Although this month has seen some pretty large price declines, we are also seeing demand for homes pick up quite a bit. As banks get rid of the homes under water via short sales and foreclosures, prices will typically drop, but what matters that they are selling.

#2 Intel Chief sees Chip sales higher then expected. Computer chip sales are selling better then most experts had predicted. This may mean that the tech sector isn't really doing all that bad after all.

#3 Top Officials talking about the Fed Raising Rates. In order to prevent inflation, which I discussed in Yesterdays post, The Fed is already talking about how soon it will be before they raise rates. Just the fact that they are considering raising rates means that they feel things are getting more stable.

As I finish writing this the market is down quite a bit. Wait to see where it seems to land and then I will be taking this as yet another buying opportunity.

Inflation over the Years - Why It Won't Sky Rocket Now

2009-05-12T07:07:00.000-07:00

I like looking at graphs of data from years past. I was doing a report on Inflation the other day and came by a really easy to read inflation graph for each year from 1911-2006. It will give you a clear picture of how the US inflation rate has changed over the last 95 years or so.

What can we immediately notice here?
Inflation has remained relatively stable, with very little volatility in the last 27 years. Since 1982 the inflation rate has bounced back and forth between about 2% and 5.5%. This is a very tight enclosure. The primary reason for the very unvolatile rate is that the Federal Reserve now has a really good handle on monetary policy, and the other tools at hand. Many economic experts, and even myself have made the case for a significant rise in the inflation rate, but after I have read several articles on the history of inflation, I seem to question my past predictions.

Will Inflation rise?
Yes it will, but I don't think ti will be as much a problem as I had previously thought. Although the Oil shortage of the late 70's caused the rate to skyrocket, the Federal reserve has learned a lot, and has more tools at it's disposal then they did just 30 years ago. I don't think we will see inflation over 7% or so in the long run, and i think that may be too high. The economy will recover, and there will be a huge supply of money, however, the Fed will increase interest rates. and likely bring inflation under control quite quickly. I'm not saying you should go out and buy bonds right now, or sell your Gold or Silver, but I am saying that I don't think things will be as serious as some are making them out to be.

Google Finance has new Layout and Features

2009-05-11T06:43:00.000-07:00

Whenever I am considering buying or selling a stock, ETF, or mutual fund, I do quite a bit of research first. The main 2 sites I use for my personal research are Google Finance and Yahoo Finance. They both had their positives and negatives, and if used together, in my opinion, made the perfect research vehicle.

Today when I woke up, I found that Google has redone it's finance page. At first it took me a few minutes to adjust to the new layout, and understand some of the new features they offer, but overall I think this will probably weigh in favor of Google over Yahoo. Here are some of the things that Google has changed about their finance site:

The main page is now more streamlined. All the news is in the center in a straight line configuration. Now they show both the market news and your portfolio news under that, instead of using tabs to have to change between the two. On the left side bar lists the stocks you have recently looked up, and on the right your portfolio. There is also a mroe prominant link to the Google Stock screener which I find an amazing tool.
Each individual stock page is now layed out differently. The navigational links as well as your last view stocks are still on the left sidebar, while on the right hand sidebar at top is a mini graph showing what the stock, it's setor, the DOW and NASDAQ have doen for the day. The layout also makes it easier to use the technical graphs that I love, which Google provides for free.

There may be some more changes that Google could, and likely will make to make navigation a bit smoother, but overall, these are positive changes for people who need to find and rely on information as quickly and accurately as possible.

Another Great Week on WallStreet

2009-05-08T07:07:00.000-07:00

This has been yet another great week for investors on Wallstreet. The markets are all up, we are past the 8,500 mark, and economic data continues to be relatively positive. We are a far cry away from the lows of 6400 we hit back in Early March. In Fact if you invested in the Dow Back then, you would already be up over 25%. As long as the economic data doesn't point to a recession lasting into 2010, I think we could see continued gains in the mid term. There will be pull backs as will all rallies, but the overall trend should remain up. Next week is another week filled with some key economic data. Below is a list of some of the more important information coming out that may help direct the markets in the second week of May:

- May 12 8:30 AM Trade Balance
- May 12 2:00 PM Treasury Budget
- May 13 8:30 AM Export Prices
- May 13 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil
- May 13 8:30 AM Retail Sales
- May 13 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto
- May 13 10:00 AM Business Inventories
- May 13 10:30 AM Crude Inventories
- May 13 10:35 AM Crude Inventories
- May 14 8:30 AM Core PPI
- May 14 8:30 AM Initial Claims
- May 14 8:30 AM PPI
- May 15 8:30 AM Core CPI
- May 15 8:30 AM CPI
- May 15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing
- May 15 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows
- May 15 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization
- May 15 9:15 AM Industrial Production
- May 15 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel

The Data I will be following closely are the Imports/Exports, Trade Balance, Retail Sales, Producer Price Index, and Intial Claims of Unemployment. As long as these numbers don't fall in the "shockingly bad" category I think that Wallstreet investors should dress for success, as the markets should remain rather stable next week.

US Economy is Recovering

2009-05-07T07:01:00.000-07:00

Another Week, another climb for US Stocks. I thought since I missed my usual Wednesday post, I will make up for it by doing an overview of some of the Good News we have all received this week, which Points to a recovery sometime this year in the economy, and the stock markets:

#1 Bank Stress Tests
The stress tests seem to be showing positive signs. None of the 19 banks who participated in the tests have been found to be insolvent. Because of this Bank stocks have sky rocketed this week.

#2 Unemployment Rate Easing
The number of people filing first-time unemployment claims fell by 34,000 this week alone. Although more people are still filing for unemployment, then are getting jobs, by quite a wide margin, the fact that the rate of job declines is falling is a signal of a trend change.

#3 Corporate Outlooks Becoming Rosier
Companies like Macy's, Cisco, Walmart, and other are giving outlooks which are much rosier then most people were expecting. This shows that they have information that supports a soon ending recession.

It is looking more and more likely that the worse recession in decades may just end before we hit a new decade. Fall of 2009 should see some growth in the economy in my opinion.

Sell in May Go Away - False

2009-05-05T07:04:00.000-07:00

There has been this saying among both stock traders and investors alike that goes like this. "Sell in May, Go away." Basically these 5 words mean one thing. Sell your stocks in May, and don't look back until much later in the year. Traders for some reason think that overall its best to sell off everything right before summer, and come back in mid fall to buy it all back on the cheap. Although long term trends may point to this, I would say this is an extremely broad and very risky philosophy especially in todays markets which are already down over 40% from their peaks.

I thought I'd explore the last few years and see what would happen if one were to sell the Dow in May, and then buy it back in October.

Dow May 9th, 2008 - 12,745
Dow October 10th - 8,451 (Note that this was about when Lehman failed)
(Sell in May Go away is accurate)

Dow May 11th, 2007 - 13,336
Dow October 12th - 14,093
(Sell In May Go Away loses money)

Dow May 12, 2006 - 11,380
Dow October 13th - 11,960
(Sell In May Go Away loses money)

Dow May 13th, 2005 - 10,140
Dow October 13th - 10,287
(Sell In May Go Away loses money)

Dow May 14th, 2004 - 10,012
Dow October 15th - 9,933
(Sell in May Go away is accurate)

So, if you go back the last 5 years, It is pretty even. I would say that from recent data, don't make any rash decisions based on a simple trader saying.

How To Make Money with ETFs If you Have Patience

2009-05-04T09:23:00.000-07:00

Earlier I gave a list of some of my favorite ETF's. ETF's for those who don't know are Exchange traded funds which trade just like stocks on the New York Stock Exchange. The great thing about many ETFs is they allow you to leverage up to 3 times. This is great for day traders because it multiplies the volatility by three as well, allowing them to make quick swing trades several times during the day.

I want to argue that many of these 3 Times Leveraged ETFs will make solid short to mid term investments for those of you who have some minor risk tolerance as well as the patience both financially and mentally to deal with the ups and downs before cashing in. This is my arguement as well as some investments I'd recommend if you are feeling a bit riskier:

We all know that eventually the stock market will go back up from where it came from. This has been the case numerous times over the last 100 years and surely will be the case again. Once the economy shows that it is on solid ground, instead of the Dow being 8000 or so, it will start going back towards, 10,000, 12,000, 14,000 or higher. it may take a few years, but almost any economist will agree that it will occur. Now, what if you had the patience to wait that long, and could leverage your money by three times. This means that if you have $100,000 to invest, you can leverage it so that you can buy $300,000 worth of stocks. In effect this is exactly what the 3X ETF's allow you to do. My favorites are: (BGU) - 3X Long Large Caps, and (TNA) - 3X Long Small Caps. Basically this says that if you invest into either of these ETFS, when the large cap and small cap indexes go up 20% the ETF will rise #X's that, or 60%.

Now, think about this. The Dow is currently hovering around 8000. When it jumps back up to 12,000, say in 2 years or so (maybe sooner, maybe later) that equates to a 50% gain. If you invest into the above ETFs, you would be getting a 150% Gain instead. That means instead of turning your $100,000 into $150,000, you would turn it into $250,000. Hey thats not bad for a 2 year investment possibly. Having said this, you have to remember if the market goes down further you are goign to lose 3 times as much money if you sell.

Market Looking Good - Next Weeks Data

2009-04-30T10:25:00.000-07:00

This week was once again filled with some excitement. We got quite a big of good news from various companies reporting earnings, and the FED also gave us signs that the economy has bottomed, and the second half of the year should show some significant improvements. Next week, we get the normal weekly data mainly. Look at the ADP unemployment numbers for signs that the job market may start to be bottoming, and on the 8th, the wholesale inventory number should give us some insight into how fast supplies are flowing out to companies. Below is the complete list of economic data being released next Week.

- May 4 10:00 AM Construction Spending
- May 4 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales
- May 5 10:00 AM ISM Services
- May 6 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change
- May 6 10:30 AM Crude Inventories
- May 7 8:30 AM Initial Claims
- May 7 8:30 AM Productivity-Prel
- May 7 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs
- May 7 3:00 PM Consumer Credit
- May 8 8:30 AM Average Workweek
- May 8 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings
- May 8 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls
- May 8 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate
- May 8 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories

In conclusion for this week. I like what I'm seeing market wise. I think we could easily see the dow at 900 by July or August if things continue the way they have been going. With the extra money in peoples paychecks starting April 1st, the 2nd Quarter earnings released in July could be quite nice for many corporations.

List of ETF's

2009-04-29T18:08:00.000-07:00

I often get emails from people asking me where they can find a list of some of the more popular ETFs that both allow you to invest into odd areas, as well as leverage both short and long, up to 30 times certain sectors or indexes. Well Here is a list of just some of my favorite ETFs (Exchange traded funds):

Triple Leverage
- Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares (BGU)
- Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x Shares (TNA)
- Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (BGZ)
- Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA)

Double Leverage and Short
- ProShares Ultra (2x) Dow30 (DDM)
- ProShares Short Dow30 (DOG)
- ProShares UltraShort (2x) Dow30 (DXD)
- ProShares Ultra (2x) S&P500 (SSO)
- ProShares Short S&P 500 (SH)
- ProShares UltraShort (2x) S&P500 (SDS)
- ProShares UltraShort (2x) MidCap400 (MZZ)
- ProShares Ultra (2x)MidCap400 (MVV)
- ProShares Ultra (2x) QQQ (QLD)
- ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ)
- ProShares UltraShort (2x) QQQ (QID)
- ProShares Ultra (2x) Russell 2000 (UWM)
- ProShares Short Russell 2000 (RWM)
- ProShares UltraShort (2x) Russell 2000 (TWM)
- ProShares Ultra (2x) Financials (UYG)
- ProShares UltraShort (2x) Financials (SKF)
- ProShares Ultra (2x) Real Estate (URE)
- ProShares UltraShort (2x) Real Estate (SRS)
- ProShares Ultra (2x) Basic Materials (UYM)
- ProShares UltraShort (2x) Basic Materials (SMN)
- ProShares UltraShort (2x) Oil & Gas (DUG)
- ProShares Ultra (2x) Semiconductors (USD)
- ProShares Ultra (2x) Technology (ROM)

Other ETFs I like:
- (USO) Tracks Oil Prices
- (GLD) Tracks Gold Prices
- (DXO) Track Oil Prices with 2X Leverage

GDP Fell at 6.1% Annualized Rate

2009-04-29T07:23:00.000-07:00

The United States GDP (Gross domestic product) fell at an annualized rate of 6.1% for the 1st quarter of 2009. This was less then the rate it fell at in the 4th Quarter of 2008, which was 6.3%, which means things are improving in the economy in general.

I just wanted to point out today, that all those people saying "we are headed to another Depression," couldn't have been further from reality. Let me explain to you all what a depression is. A Depression (Not the great depression, which was even worse) means that GDP falls at an annualized rate of 10% for 4 straight quarters. That's an average of 2.5% each quarter for 4 quarters. Considering that our annualized rate of decline was 6.3% and 6.1% respectedly for the 4th and 1st quarters, we are far from "Depression" levels. We would need to almost double the declines and have the declines persist for twice as ling as they already have to even consider a Depression scenario.

Unless a major unforeseen economic event strikes at the heart of the Nations economy, we will not even be close to Depression status anytime in the near future. The government has many, many new tools at it's desposal to combat a lessenign money supply, and put cash back into peoples pockets. Maybe next time the media begins to tout the current economic problems as a possible Depression scenario, you will take the time to go against the herd and invest in solid, debt free companies.

Consumer Confidence Shoots Up, and More Good News

2009-04-28T07:33:00.001-07:00

Despite the worry about the swine flu in the markets, which, if you read my last post you know I think is a bit over done, the markets are up today as I write this. There are 2 main reasons investors are looking at stocks more optimistically today after a bit of a sell off to start the week off:

Consumer Confidence Sky Rockets:
In the month of April, consumers gained a tremendous amount of confidence. The key index surged 12 points to 39.2 from a revised 26.9 for the month of March. This represent the largest increase in the index for quite a while, and in my opinion clearly shows sentiment both in investors and consumers minds have turned. I'm guessing that the fact that the stock market had rebounded this month, has given consumers more reason to be optimistic about the general economy. This is great because as their confidence rises, they spend more money, allowing business's to make more money, hire more employees, and give consumers even more confidence. Just like we had a downward spiral of bad news cause and effects, the opposite seems to now be occurring.

Home Prices Declining at Slower Pace:
The other piece of good news is for homeowners. The prices of home in 20 key cities of the United states has slowed it's pace of decline. This can lead to banks offering mortgages with more ease, and a general wealth perception for homeowners, which could further increase Consumer Confidence next month.

I think the economy has clearly bottomed, and things should be up from here, with a few bumps along the way. Should you invest in the market? If you have some extra cash, then go for it, in my opinion.

Swine Flu Pointlessly Affecting the Markets?

2009-04-27T06:39:00.000-07:00

The Stock Market is at least starting out lower today, oil is down over 5%, and the European Union is advising their citizens not to travel to the United states unless absolutely necessary all because 20 people have a form of the flu, Swine Flu, in the United States. There were more reports in Mexico as well.

Does this sound crazy to you or what? The Swine Flu for those of you who are not aware, had a minor outbreak in the United states in 1976, and pretty much causes the common symptoms we all associate with the flue virus, which is running nose, sneezing, fever, headache, sore throat, vomiting, etc. The virus is initially picked up by people who work around pigs (swine) and then it is spread from human to human just like any flue virus is spread.

Airline, and cruise line stocks are really being hit hard from this news which started to break early this weekend, for fears that an epidemic could slow the travel industry as well as the global economy more then it already has been slowed down by the recession. In my opinion it's likely not going to have a major impact on the bottom line of these or any companies stocks, and it's probably not a bad idea to take this time to consider getting into the airline and cruise line stocks if you have been waiting to.

Of course with these types of things, the media will pick up any negatives they can to try and scare their audience into watching more of their new shows. Be cautious, but also realize that markets often over react in these cases.

Important Stock Earnings Reports for Next Week

2009-04-24T07:03:00.000-07:00

This week was dull in terms of economic data, but exciting in terms of earnings data. The economic data this week was not very good. Most of the trends that we hoped were emerging, after the data the last few weeks began showing a possible recovery in areas, such as first time unemployment claims, manufacturing index, etc, have taken a turn down again with this weeks data. Having said this, companies like Google, American Express, Apple, Intel, Black and Decker, JetBlue, and others surprised us with their much better then expected earnings for the 1st quarter of 2009. What is in store for next week? Well, there are still a lot of earnings reports coming, especially in Health care and Biotech. Then you have this laundry list of economic data releases throughout the week, which may shed further light on the general economy.

Date Time (ET) Statistic
- Apr 28 9:00 AM Consumer Confidence
- Apr 28 10:00 AM S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index
- Apr 29 8:30 AM GDP-Adv.
- Apr 29 8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv.
- Apr 29 10:35 AM Crude Inventories
- Apr 29 2:15 PM FOMC Rate Decision
- Apr 30 8:30 AM Initial Claims
- Apr 30 8:30 AM Personal Income
- Apr 30 8:30 AM Personal Spending
- Apr 30 8:30 AM Employment Cost Index
- Apr 30 9:45 AM Chicago PMI
- May 1 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev
- May 1 10:00 AM Factory Orders
- May 1 10:00 AM ISM Index
- May 1 2:00 PM Auto Sales
- May 1 2:00 PM Truck Sales

Stock Earnings Surprises

2009-04-23T06:51:00.000-07:00

I thought I'd take this Thursday to be a bit optimistic, not that I haven't already been in most of my older posts. US corporations do not generally seem to be in as bad shape as expected, especially the technology section. Google, Apple, Intel, and others have all reported in the last ten days, and they have pretty much blown out analysts estimates. Has the gloom and doom from the media affected their estimates to the negative side?

What Do these Surprises Mean?
When companies like Apple, who sell products at very large mark ups, and are usually more expensive then their competitors, show signs that the economy is not affecting them as much as most experts thought it would, I think there may have been some gross underestimates. I'm not here saying that the dow will shoot up to 9,000 or 10,000 within weeks, or months, but I do think that there will continue to be many more earnings surprises especially in the next 2 Quarters.

Tech Companies
Look for innovation to really show it's teeth in the next few quarters. I expect Apple to release a new product soon, sort of a mix between a Netbook, and an Ipod. I'm guessing it will be a suped up larger screen ipod with capabilities to pretty much do everythign a desktop could do. I also See Google making a major acquisition or two. Twitter? Maybe. But I also think they will continue to innovate themselves, possibly slowly releasing an online harddrive service, as well as maybe even acquiring the newly announced cloud computer video game system Onlive.

Banks
The big question is, how bad shape are the banks really in? They have all been reporting profits much higher then analysts predicted, but can they all survive, continued write-downs, foreclosures, and the mess in the credit markets? Tommorow the first Bank Stress tests will be released to the Obama administration. Although the public won't get the specifics, it will tell the administration how solid the main US banks are. Personally I expect most bank stocks to have nice runs in the next 6-12 months. Once the economy is in the all clear, the banks that did survive and acquire other investment firms and banks, will be in a strong position for the future.

3 Ways to Protect Yourself Against Inflation

2009-04-22T07:36:00.000-07:00

Right now Inflation is probably the last thing on peoples minds. As an investor you are probably more worried about your stock portfolio, your home value, or your job. Having said this, with all the money the United States Government as well as other governments around the world have been pumping into the Economy, there is sure to be heavy inflation in the next year or two. Some economists even venture to say that inflation could rival the double digit numbers we have seen in the 1970's. I don't think it will get that bad, but I do think you should consider protecting your self against inflation. Here are 3 quick investment methods to do so:

Buy Gold - Gold is probably one of the best hedges agianst inflation. As the value of the dollar falls with inflation, the amount of gold that the dolalr can buy decreases, making it more valuable.
Exchange Traded funds (ETFs) - which are inverse treasuries or inflation. Ticker (TIP) is a fund which invests in instruments that are the inverse of inflation. If inflation rises you will get a return that inflation won't effect. (RYJUX) is another fund which is the inverse of treasuries, standing for "Rydex Inverse Gov Long Bond Strategy". As inflation rises, government bond values fall. This invests in Vehicles which are inverse of that.
Buy a Home - We may not see run ups in prices liek we have in the past, but a house is a great inflation protected asset.

It's probably not a good idea to go all out and throw all your money into the above 3 investments, but a good 10-20% more into a combination of these three investments coudl pay off big if you beleive inflation will be a major problem in the future.

Stocks Still Cheap - My High Dividend Picks

2009-04-21T06:31:00.000-07:00

Alright, well yesterday was a major sell off, and it looks like today may continue the fire sale. After a run up like the one we had the last 4 weeks, a pullback is to be expected. Having said this I think we are at another buying opportunity. Could stocks go lower? Sure, but they are very cheap. Below are a few stocks that seem very cheap if you are looking for dividends. Keep in mind that a 5+% dividend is paying pretty much double of what a bank Certificate of Deposit is paying, plus you have the upside of the stock to factor in as well if you are a long term investor.

British Petroleum - (BP) - Dividend Yield - 8.64%
Great stock, oil demand will soar once the economy picks up. Also oil is a great way to hedge against future inflation which is all but a sure thing.

Reynolds American - (RAI) - Dividend Yield - 8.66%
They make cigarettes. If you don't see a moral issue in investing in them, go for it. Although there has been an increase in cigarette taxes, people are still buying them. They also have a line of new tobacco products, that are contraversial, but profitable. At 8.66%, this dividend is amazing. Reynolds America is a great stock for uncertain markets in that it usually trades in a less volatile manner.

Intel - (INTC) - Dividend Yield - 3.73%
A technology company, that is growing, yet paying a dividend 1% higher then the average Bank CD? Yep, Intel is by far the leader of computer chip makers. The company continues to expand, and will be back above $20 a share easily once the economy recovers. Intel took a bit of a hit last earnings call when they didn't give specific about the future outlook. I Say, buying opportunity.

As long as you are in the stock market for the long run (at least 2 years) I think you will certainly see substantial gains plus be paid to hold the stocks (via dividend payout) over the next several months and years. I also like some of the bond funds out there that are a bit more risky but pay over 10%.

5 Reasons Why the Recession is good

2009-04-20T07:11:00.000-07:00

"Recession" and "good" in the same sentence? Yes, despite the obvious negative impacts of a strong recession like we are having right now, there are actually quite a few positive things that can come out of a strong recession.

Financial Reform - Whether you like regulation or not, there will be a lot more of it. Each and every major recession, or Depression, teaches the country how to prevent the same circumstances from occurring again. We learned a lot from the Great Depression, and will learn a lot from this economic mess as well.
Wakes People Up - There is no doubt, that losing 40% in your 401k plan will wake you up. Those Americans who have been spending way more then they could afford, are now going back to the basics. Valuing time spent with family over that spent in the new Porshe, or in front of the new 60 inch lcd tv.
Prevention of a Giant Multi faceted Bubble - Without cyclical downturns, investments would all be giant bubbles. Wheather it be stocks runnign up to have a PE ratio of 50, or the housing market pricing out most families, the lack of a downturn would obviously cause large bubbles to form which would eventually pop.
Promote Efficiencies - Yes, jobs are being cut, and people are in trouble, but the recession has caused everyone, families as well as corporations to cut back their spending and squeeze as much as they can out of every dollar. They are become more efficient with what they have. When things do turn around, they will be in a position to enjoy and take advantage of the turnaround.
Everything is Cheap and Affordable to Different Groups - The recession has actually hurt the rich more then the poor in terms of total wealth. Having said this, the Poor may be facing more problems then the wealthy, but will now possibly be able to afford a new home, and invest in stocks which in my opinion are grossly undervalued.

Next Weeks Stock Market Movers

2009-04-16T19:46:00.000-07:00

Next week is sort of an odd one for the market. After seeing a very nice run up in stocks this week and last, next week could be a big week which will tell us if we will remain in this Bull rally, or possibly fall down a notch or two. This week we had Earnings released from Google, JP Morgan, and Intel, and none of them were too bad. Next weeks we have the following Economic data being released. It's not a week filled with important data. In fact there isn't much scheduled to be released that will affect the overall market too much:

- Apr 20 10:00 AM Leading Indicators
- Apr 22 10:35 AM Crude Inventories
- Apr 23 8:30 AM Initial Claims 04/18
- Apr 23 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales
- Apr 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders Mar
- Apr 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders, Ex-Auto Mar
- Apr 24 10:00 AM New Home Sales Mar

Switching gears though, Next week is a big week for earnings reports as well as unscheduled information. Besides hundreds of companies, most importantly Bank of America, Apple, and IBM reporting their earnings, the Obama administration will also be releasing information about the first bank stress tests. The market could react heavily on whatever this report from Obama will say.

Google Earnings Report a Blowout?

2009-04-16T07:04:00.000-07:00

Is Google About to Blow Out Earnings? As many of you know who have read my postings in the past, I am a huge fan of Google. Today at a little after 4 pm est they will announce their 2009 Quarter 4 earnings. The analysts have estimated that Google will report earnings of $4.93 per share on Revenue of 4.08 Billion. Whether they beat those estimates or not doesn't really have me too concerned, being a long term shareholder. I own quite a bit of stock, and thought that, today on Googles BIG day I would go over a few of the reasons I think they will continue to grow at a rapid pace:

They are Entering the Mobile Market with a fury. In less than a year since they launched their Android mobile phone operating system, they have already taken over 5% of the worlds market share. With Mobile advertising expected to be in the $10 billion plus range by 2012, this will ad an incredible amount of revenue for the company.
Google knows all. They really do. They have access to so much information that they can predict trends before anyone else. This will allow them to have the first mover advantage in a variety of fields. They can predict much better then anyone else what people will do, what they like, etc. This is be a huge advantage when they start investing into the Google Venture Capital operation.
Android Expansion? Yep, there is already talk of the first nonsmartphone Android platform, a netbook which runs on the Operating system. Whats next, a full fledged desktop OS? That's pretty clear to me. They are taking on Microsoft in just abotu every area.

I don't know if Google will blow out earnings, but they did cut back costs significantly last quarter. They also took quite a bit of market share, and were probably the beneficiaries of people being stuck at hoem without a job, using their search engine. I do also think Youtube will be much more lucrative on this earnings report then the last few.

Why Stock Earnings This Quarter Don't Matter so Much

2009-04-15T06:55:00.000-07:00

It's that time of the year again, where 1st quarter earnings for many large companies are due out. Intel, Goldman Sachs, Well Fargo, have all released their earnings, and Google as well as other large companies prepare to this week and next. So, what exactly are we looking for with these earnings reports?

We already know this is probably going to be the worse Quarter in years for many companies. With economic data showing the economy seems to be at least on a slight rebound, it is likely that most of these companies will report better numbers come July for their 2nd quarter. So, should and will these numbers effect the stock all that much? Well, any quarterly report is bound to get a stock price reaction in the short term, but if you are in these stocks for two years or more, don't sweet this quarters earnings. Take for example Intel. Their stock is down 5% after reporting numbers that were seemingly in line with forecasts by analysts. Since they didn't give clear guidance for next quarter the stock is hurting. As an investor though, you have to take the optimistic view. Intel is pretty much the only major computer chip maker worth mentioning, besides AMD which is falling further behind each quarter. When the economy rebounds, they will be in a position better then ever to take a commanding lead in this market as they grow not only in scale, but also in scope. There is no reason they stock will not approach the 52 week high of $25 sometime in the near future, not to mention their current, dividend which seems secure is paying more then any bank CD you will find.

In conclusion I think this quarters earnings reports, if for a company with little or no debt, a clean balance sheet, and a bright future, should not be read too much into. This quarters earnings may in fact make for some great buying opportunities if you are looking for solid long term investments.

Historical: Unemployments Relationship to A Recession

2009-04-13T20:02:00.001-07:00

Just how bad will unemployment get before it starts to turn around? Well, we can't answer that question, but we can tell you, that the rate will likely continue to increase until the recession is over, and could still increase after the recession has ended and we are well into a recovery. Unemployment rate is a lagging indication. This means that it doesn't turn around until after the general economy has. If you look at the chart above, you can see the yellow shaded areas are confirmed recessionary periods since 1948. The blue line shows the unemployment rate for the last 60 years. It's a little bit scary looking at the last two recessions, of 2000-01, and 1990-91. The unemployment rate in both cases continued to rise 18 months after each recession ended. Besides these two recessions though, which were generally mild, the unemployment rate seems to start it's decline at the end of the recession. My prediction is that this recession will official end sometime in the 3rd quarter of this year, and the unemployment rate will begin falling probably in or around September.

2008 Celebrity Earnings

2009-04-11T13:55:00.000-07:00

Did you ever wonder how your earnings stacked up with celebrities, including musicians, sports stars, and TV public personalities? Well Here is a glimpse at what some of the earnings for 2008 were of these famous people:

Tyler Perry - $125 million
Tiger Woods -$110 million
Jay-Z - $82 million
Beyonce - $80 million
Rush Limbaugh - $38 million
Alex Rodriguez - $34 million
Will Ferrell - $31 million
Jennifer Aniston - $27 million
Kelly Ripa - $8 million
Danica Patrick - $7 million
Tina Fey - $4.6 million
Patrick Dempsey - $3.5 million
Britney Spears - $2.25 million
Sarah Palin - $125,000

If you thought of these as day jobs, and these people worked the average 40 hour work week, their average hourly wages would look as follows:

Tyler Perry - $62,150 an hour
Tiger Woods -$52,880 an hour
Jay-Z - $39,423 an hour
Beyonce - $38,461 an hour
Rush Limbaugh - $18,269 an hour
Alex Rodriguez - $16,346 an hour
Will Ferrell - $14,423 an hour
Jennifer Aniston - $12,980 an hour
Kelly Ripa - $3,846 an hour
Danica Patrick - $3,365 an hour
Tina Fey - $2,211 an hour
Patrick Dempsey - $1,682 an hour
Britney Spears - $1080 an hour
Sarah Palin - $60 an hour

Google First Quarter Earnings and More

2009-04-10T07:38:00.000-07:00

As I mentioned int he previous post, Next week is probably one of the more important weeks for the market that we have seen in quite a while. Not only is a huge array of data coming out throughout the week, but many of the largest companies, especially in Tech are reporting their earnings. These earnings reports will give the market an idea about just how bad things have been for the 1st quarter of 2009. The following are some of the dates and larger companies reporting earnings this week.

Tuesday April 14th
Intel Corporation - After Market Close - Expected $0.02 per share
Johnson & Johnson - Time not Given - Expected $1.22 per share

Wednesday April 15th
Piper Jaffray - Before Market Opens - Expected -$0.17 per share

Thursday April 16th
JPMorgan Chase & Co. - 6:30am - Expected $0.31 per share
Google - After Market Close - Expected $4.95 per share
Harley Davidson - Before Market Open - Expected $0.51 per share
Nokia - Time Not Given - Expected $0.15 per share

Friday April 17th
General Electric - Before Market Open - Expected $0.21 per share
Citigroup Inc - Before Market Open - Expected -$0.36 per share

The following week may be just as big. I am really curious to see how well Google does, as they seem to be a good barometer for the tech sector in general. Their stock is up 40% from it's lows just 2 months ago.

Next Week: Retails Sales, Philadephia Fed and More

2009-04-09T07:14:00.000-07:00

Wow, what an end to a shortened week today. The Dow, as I type this is up over 190 points, Unemployment seems to be rising at a less rapid pace, and Wells Fargo predicted a $3 billion profit. Things really may be headed back up. I called the bottom at 6400 just a few weeks back. I am more confident then ever before that my call was correct, and those investments made back then will perform very well in the long run. Next week is a huge week for the stock market. There is all sorts of economic data being released, as well as many earnings releases too by some of the biggest companies in the US. Tomorrow The market is closed for Good Friday. I will go more into details about next weeks earnings releases sometime in tomorrow's entry. Below is a list of the key economic data we will get next week with the date and time:

- Apr 14 8:30 AM Core PPI
- Apr 14 8:30 AM PPI
- Apr 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales
- Apr 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto
- Apr 15 8:30 AM Core CPI
- Apr 15 8:30 AM CPI
- Apr 15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing
- Apr 15 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization
- Apr 15 9:15 AM Industrial Production
- Apr 15 10:30 AM Crude Inventories
- Apr 15 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book
- Apr 16 8:30 AM Building Permits
- Apr 16 8:30 AM Housing Starts
- Apr 16 8:30 AM Initial Claims
- Apr 16 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed
- Apr 17 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel

The ones which should sway the market the most are, Retails Sales, Housing Starts, Industrial Manufacturing, and the Philadelphia fed numbers. If numbers are good as well as earnings from some of the larger companies I will discuss tomorrow, we could see the Dow in eterritor we havn't seen it in close to 6 months.

Inflation: What it Means For Different Investments

2009-04-08T06:52:00.000-07:00

While everyone in the US are worrying about the unemployment rate, whether they will have a job next week, and if their 401k's will bounce back, there is another worry behind the scenes which will not really be a problem until the economic recovery takes place. That is Inflation! Why is inflation such a big worry in the long run? Because the US and other nations have pumped trillions of dollars into the economy. When the supply of money increases, there is more of it to bid up prices of every day items. This is inflation. In the 70's and 80's we saw inflation at a rate over 10% for several years. The problem with that is the money people are holding continues to be worth less and less in relation to what it can buy. So, with the possibility of some major inflation in the future, you should know how it will effect various investments:

Inflation's Effects on Stocks
The stock market doesn't have all that much correlation to the inflation rate. If inflation goes up, companies can just raise their prices usually and make things even out. Inflation can however cause mroe volatility in the stock markets

Inflation's Effects on Money In the Bank
You don't want to have lots of money in a savings account paying low inetrest when inflation strikes. As the inflation rate rises, that money is actually losing value if your interest rate you are getting from the bank isn't at least as high as the inflation rate. The good thing though with cash is that you can usually find a bank paying a rate that is over the current inflation rate. The one tip here is to not lock any money in a CD for the long term during periods of inflation unless you feel inflation rates have peaked.

Inflation's Effects on Gold and Oil
As inflation rises commodities, especially gold and oil should rise as well. If we have high rates of inflation then Gold and Oil are where you should have at least a portion of your portfolio.

Inflations Effects on Bonds
Inflation is terrible for bonds if you already own them. As internet rates and inflation rise, the older bonds values decline since they have less a yield. On the other hand, if you can get some long term bonds while inflation is high, they will likely go uop in value when it subsides.

VineFire Scam? For Sure

2009-04-07T07:38:00.000-07:00

I don't usually weigh in on these types of programs, but since Vinefire is so popular so fast, I thought I'd give my view on the program. On the cover Vinefire seems like just another Digg.com type site. You post links, and other rate them. That is until you see what this site, which likely has less then a few hundred dollars a day in revenue, offers:

VineFire's Payout Offers

$50.00 Just to sign up
$0.45 for each Link your click
$0.50 for each Sponsored link clicked (Sponsored links are Affiliate links for the owner)
$0.12 cents to post a link

Now, You woudl think that at least the person posting the link would have to pay, to provide revenue to the company so they can pay the 45 cents for each click members make on your link, but no, they pay you for advertising too!

So, how is VineFire a scam?

They waste your time
They charge peopel for featured links
They charge people for accoutn upgrades. $5 to raise your daily earnign limit from $50 to $100

All this and they cliam you wil have to wait until January of 2010 before getting your payments. Now, looking at the Alexa rank, lets consider that they have close to 10,000 members. Lets say they all make half of the limit of $50 per day. Thats $25 X 10,000 which equals $250,000 per day they need to pay out eventually. Since they are probably brining in maybe $1000 a day if they are lucky, this is a surefire scam.

A Sign of a Market Recovery - Acquisitions

2009-04-06T06:00:00.000-07:00

A few weeks ago, before the Dow decided to run up close to 20% making it the biggest short term rally since the Great Depression, I stated that one of the signs of a recovery is when larger corporations begin buying up the smaller ones.

Well, it looks like the buying has begun. Google is supposedly in talks with the Social networking site Twitter.com to either buy, or make a search deal with them. If Google was to acquire Twitter it would give them an instant inroad into the live search areas. Twitter is used for people to write a short 140 character or less message describing what is on their mind, or what they are doing. Because so many people use them, it is very easy to search Twitter for a word, and see just how that word relates to current events in real time. Google could really take advantage of that kind of information.

There are also many other deals in the works. IBM was, and maybe still is trying to acquire Sun Microsystems, and the pharmaceutical industry is starting to gain buzz about all sorts of possible acquisitions and mergers. This is a sure sign that larger corporations believe that the smaller ones are currently undervalued, likely because the whole stock market as a whole is undervalued. Look for the coming months to even heat up more with deals being made in just about every industry there is. Earnings season is here, and next week Google as well as Apple and many other tech firms will be announcing earnings. It should be interesting to see what they are and what it may say about the economy in general.

Crazy Facts about Forex Plus Forex Megadroid

2009-04-03T17:43:00.000-07:00

Just wanted to go over a few things about Forex trading since it is the weekend and there isn't much economic news out. I'm just going to go over some fact that may surprise you about Forex:

The Forex market is the largest market on the planet by far. On an every day there are over $3.5 trillion in transactions. Yes that is $3,500,000,000,000!
Banks are estimated to have 20-30% of all their cash trading in the forex markets. It is estimated that 40% of their profits come from trading forex.
The Forex Market has grown over 700% in the last 20 years.
Some experts think that some banks will switch over entirely to forex trading since it has been shown to be more lucrative then that of lending. I doubt this will ever happen though.
An individual can trade $100,000 in currency with only $1000 in cash. This is called 100:1 leverage which is allowed because of the rather tight movement of currencies.
Unlike the stock market the forex markets are opened 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
There are 2 markets for demand, the traders, and the actual buyers of the currencies such as travelers and business entities.

Now, There are tons of strategies and systems people create, prove to work and then sell. Systems like Fap Turbo, Forex MegaDroid, and others have all been shown to make profits to some extent. Having said this, if you are a good trader you can come up with your own strategy that works best for you. So next time you see one of those ads on TV about Forex trading, you have some incite about what it is.

Amazing Week on Wallstreet - Whats Next?

2009-04-03T06:50:00.000-07:00

The Dow has been flirting and even surpassed the 8000 mark this week. Unemployment numbers were not great, but there were a lot of signs that economic conditions may be improving. At this pace the recession should probably be over by the 4th quarter, and unemployment should go down by the start of 2010. So whats on tap for Next week? Below is a quick list of the dates and times of key economic data. It really isn't that big a week in terms of data, however the following week should be packed with interesting pieces of information.

- Apr 7 2:00 PM Consumer Credit
- Apr 8 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories
- Apr 8 10:30 AM Crude Inventories
- Apr 9 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag.
- Apr 9 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil
- Apr 9 8:30 AM Initial Claims 04/04
- Apr 9 8:30 AM Trade Balance Feb

Wholesale Inventory number should be interesting. In February it fell at a 0.7% rate, and experts expect a decrease of about 0.6% when the March number are released on Wednesday. The Initial claims of unemployment insurance should also give us an idea where Unemployment numbers are headed. A surprise to the downside, meaning more Job Opportunities for America, could keep the market rally alive and well.

Terrible Job Numbers Continue but Stocks Up

2009-04-02T07:15:00.000-07:00

Yesterday and today we were presenting with more terrible unemployment numbers. Worse then expected by most experts in fact. US Initial Jobless Claims Rose by 12000 to 669000 last month, while people continue to get laid off while companies cut back their expenses on lessening demand for their products and services.

Why Is the Stock Market Up Then?
Despite these terrible numbers, the stock market has been up close to 5% in the last 2 days alone. Kind of ironic huh? The reason the jobs data is not affecting the stock market in a negative sense is because traders and investors have already likely priced in the expect loss of jobs. They know that the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator in the economy. This means that the Stock market, as well as economic demand will rise before the unemployment rate begins to lower and new job opportunities present themselves.

Some Good News:
The market is also being propelled by some rather optimistic news. Pending home sales were up, and the manufacturing index was not as bad as most experts thought it would be. This along with the expectations that mark-to-market accounting rules were going to be changed today has propelled especially the Banking and financial stocks.

Overall, I have a good feeling about the market. Stocks should probably settle in the 7,900-8,400 range for a while, creating a new base for a run up to higher territory in May and June.

Google to Buy Apple - Goople

2009-04-01T06:47:00.001-07:00

This morning Google announced in a statement that they will acquire Apple, formerly Apple Computer, in a cash and stock purchase. The deal will Give Google an instant Hardware and software business to go along with their search and cloud computer software business. As long as regulators allow the deal, Google, or Goople as it will now be called, will have a market cap of over $200 Billion.

What does this mean for Company?
The two companies mash up well. Google now has its own Cell Phone, the iPhone which is by far the leader in the smartphone industry. Along with this it will be inetresting to see what gogole does as for a smartphone operating system. They of course have their own in Android, but Apple also has their own operating system. Will they merge the two? Google now has an instant operating system to take on Microsoft. Will Goople now expand Apple OS to other computers besides the Mac? Will Goople somehow integrate iTunes into their internet search results? We will all fidn out soon I assume.

What does this Mean for Competition?
Let's just say that Microsoft has no chance. Google will lead in Internet search, smart phone sales, and have their very own computer lineup and Operating system. Windows better watch out.

What does this Mean for Consumers?
Consumers should benefit greatly from this. Innovation will be rampant. The 2 brightest tech companies are now one. I wouldn't be surprised if Goople were to subside all Iphone sales, making them extremely cheap by place ads within the phone. You shoudl see vast improvement in Googles search, when searchign for music, and a possibly faster product innovations for Apples old lineup of products.

Google to Launch Venture Capital fund

2009-03-31T06:40:00.000-07:00

Not every day do you see a major corporation like Google launch a $100 million dollar venture capital fund that will be used to invest in projects both inside and outside of it's niche. Google, the superpower of the the internet is setting aside a huge sum of money for just its first year of the fund.

Because of Googles reach, as well as their ability to see exactly what millions of people are searching for, and doing each and every day, I feel they have a major advantage in terms of where to invest money for the future. Google's stock is up $10 already primarily because of this announcement. Here are a few of of the possible areas that Google's Venture Capital unit will put more of its weight behind:

Internet Technology
Electric Vehicles and Hybrid Vehicles
Solar and Wind Power
Disease and other Health Related fields
Space related

Google announced the following about the Venture Capital Arm:

"It will bring "to bear Google's unique technical expertise and brand" to "find young companies with truly awesome potential and encourage their development into successful businesses."

In my opinion, this is a great move, for both the country as a whole, and especially the Google shareholders. They may soon be owning quite a few smaller companies with promising prospects.

Internet Reviews for Ebooks - Completely Biased

2009-03-30T06:33:00.000-07:00

As I was considering buying an e-book/membership earlier today for a group of search engine optimization techniques and ideas, I began searching the net for reviews, figuring that I better not spend that $147 until I make sure I know it will be worth my time and money. So, I went to Google and did a search for the products name and "review". Wow, over 800,000 listings came up. I began then clicking the top listings, figuring they will at least provide me with some incite on if this product/service was worth it.

Guess what? Each and every review I read, one after another was simply a biased, often poorly written, sales pitch with each webmasters affiliate link plastered throughout the supposed review. How can I get a straight forward review from people who actually tried this product? The answer is, it's not easy! Site after site I felt as if I was reading a review for a machine gun written by a 85 year old grandmom who never saw a gun in her life. I would guess that the majority of reviews I found on the first 3 pages of Google were written by people who never even tried the actual product, but instead were simply trying to make a sale, hoping their visitors will click on the affiliate marketing links they have all over the review, and then buy the product. Of course, if they did use the product and it totally sucked, why would they say anything bad about it if their intentions were to try marketing that same product to their website visitors. Note that most e-books do offer a money back guarantee if you jump through enough hoops to get it. This is why legimate complainers usually don't bother wasting their time to tell the world how terrible certain products are.

The one negative review I found was ironically on a site selling an ebook which was in direct competition to the one I was looking for. The lesson learned here is to never trust what you read on the internet, unless you know the actual source behind it. There are peoples names being slandered, companies products being both slandered by competition, and idolized by their affiliates, and lies being published probably every nanosecond.

Economic Data Schedule for Mar 31- April 3

2009-03-26T19:38:00.000-07:00

This week we had some very impressive numbers, particularly better then expected data coming in the Existing housing sales, new home sales, and durable goods orders. This in effect has given us the best week in the market since 1987. So, what will next week have in store for the markets and economy in general? I guess we have to wait and see. Below is a list of the data and time/date it will be released next week. I would pay particular attention to the Home Price Index, Pending Home sales (ie, the real estate market), Auto sales, and Unemployment rates. Most are expected to be pretty bad, so any mis-estimations the markets are making to the downside could play a role in keeping this rally going or not.

Mar 31 9:00 AM - S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Mar 31 9:00 AM - S&P/CaseShiler Home Price Index
Mar 31 9:45 AM - Chicago PMI
Apr 1 8:15 AM - ADP Employment Change
Apr 1 10:00 AM - Construction Spending
Apr 1 10:00 AM - ISM Index
Apr 1 10:00 AM - Pending Home Sales
Apr 1 10:30 AM - Crude Inventories
Apr 1 2:00 PM - Auto Sales
Apr 1 2:00 PM - Truck Sales
Apr 2 8:30 AM - Initial Claims
Apr 2 10:00 AM - Factory Orders
Apr 3 8:30 AM - Average Workweek
Apr 3 8:30 AM - Hourly Earnings
Apr 3 8:30 AM - Nonfarm Payrolls
Apr 3 8:30 AM - Unemployment Rate
Apr 3 10:00 AM - ISM Services

Tim Geithner Too Quickly Judged?

2009-03-26T08:10:00.001-07:00

The United States Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner took a lot of heat in the early going. First it was the revelation that he incorrectly under reported his taxes. Then it was the fact that he gave a broad and unrevealing first speech to the American Public about his plans to free up credit in the banks. All this led to a quick negative image of Tim Geithner in the media.

In my opinion they jumped on the guy much too early. Afterall he has only been at the head of the Treasury for 2 months now, and unlike taking a position for a corporation, stepping into the financial position liek this for the entire country, and one that is in extreme financial trouble can not be easy. From the very start the media began critacizing him. What did they expect? Did they think he could come up with a plan to reverse all the damage done from years of neglect, in just a few weeks?

Anyway, it now looks like the media has turned the other way. Geithner has revealed a plan that seems quite ingenious if it works like it's supposed to. By leveraging government money he is already attracting numerous investors to buy up the toxic bank assets as an investment, giving the banks more cash to lend out. The transformation he has made in just weeks, image wise, make me wonder if he can turn his public image around so fast, in an organized smart manner, then maybe he can actually turn this financial mess around faster then most experts believe. With Investments already seeming to have an upside, we just may see more then many expect in a economic sense. We'll have to see if Geithner can stay on course or if unknown circumstances throw a wrench into his plans.

Recession Soon to be Over?

2009-03-25T07:35:00.000-07:00

Are we At the Tip of the Good-News Market Iceberg?

Just like the last 5-6 months was filled with bad news and no glimmer of hope, it seems as though we may be finally bucking this trend. What will it mean for the economy, the stock markets and struggling families in general?

Monday we had the bank rescue plan emerge, giving hope to the country that the banks will likely be in ok shape after the worst recession in decades. Yesterday we were informed that home sales have risen much more than expected, and today we find out that durable goods orders have increased last month. We also learned today that mortgage applications have risen quite a bit, given that rates are at record lows. This will hopefully allow some refinancing, permitting many homeowners to stay put.

Is this just the tip of the iceberg? Will the good news continue? In my opinion yes! Next Thursday, April 1st, most Americans will begin noticing their paychecks are a bit larger. Why? Because starting that day your taxes deducted from that check will be less, thanks to the stimulus package passed last month. On top of this there is a general sense of optimism in the media whereas just a week or two ago it was months of pessimism. Are we going to wake up in a recovered economy tomorrow? No, but I do think by the end of this year the recession will be over, and starting in early 2010 the unemployment rate will begin to drop.

In the meantime I suggest watching the stock market. I would not be at all surprised to see the Dow in the 9000-9500 range by July or August provided there are no major bouts of bad news beyond what is expected.

Media and the Economy

2009-03-24T07:52:00.000-07:00

This post is solely my opinion, however as time goes by I believe it more and more. Is the United States economy directly impacted by the major news stations such as CNN, Fox News, MSNBC? In my opinion they are a major catalyst in both economic downturns and recoveries.

The other day I saw a blog post at Dailykos mentioning that the Dow has fallen over 50% since Fox Business News Channel went live on October 15, 2007. That day, the DOW was at 14,093. Sine then it has plunged all the way down to 6,450. Of course there are major underlying problems with the US economy, and by no means am I blaming it mostly on the major news stations. What I am trying to say is that the major outlets help to invigorate these market swings as well as the economy in general.

The Media Problem
Ok, so you hear on CNN that the Market is down more then any other time since the great depression. They then run online polls suggesting that 45% of Americans believe we are headed towards a situation comparable to the Great Depression. The funny thing is, if you had asked 10 of the top economic scholars in the country the same question, I would guess that not even one of them would agree with the 45% taking that poll. CNN then runs show after show about the economy and how almost half of all Americans think we are headed for the worst economic situation, ever int he history of the US. Such a story can easily scare the crap out of any of us. Small Business's begin cutting costs, banks tighten up credit, ordinary people start spending less, as well as taking their money out of the stock market and into cash, and the economy shrinks even more. It's a seemingly never ending downward spiral propelled by the media which feeds on bad news. So what will get us out of this cycle? Likely it will be a small piece of good news, that the media runs with and blows out of proportion like they did with all the bad news. This will get people optimistic, have them spend more, invest more, and create more good news for the media to report on.

Conclusion On The Media and The Economy
Like I said, the media isn't to blame for the cyclical downturns every economy has. What they are responsible for is possibly making an ordinary economic downturn into something the recession from hell. Over reporting on the wrong stories often lead to irrational market behavior as well as economic and business behavior.

Leading and Lagging Indicators

2009-03-23T09:08:00.000-07:00

I thought I'd write a quick post about leading and lagging indicators in the economy. In My opinion the economy is well on it's way to recovery. I posted that we hit a stock bottom a few weeks back and since then the dow is up over 1100 points. Could it fall again? Sure, but recovery is well on it's way.

Leading Indicators
Leading indicators in this situation, indicators which turn up before the general economy, are home sales, the stock market, Index of supplier Deliveries, Interest rate spreads, new orders of consumer goods, real money supply, building permits, average weekly manufacturing hours, and new orders of consumer goods. What these indicators do is show an improving economy usually before the main economy has shown signs of this improvement. In the current economy, many of these are increase, such as money supply, building permits, and the stock market.

Lagging Indicators
Lagging Indicators are economic indicators which usually don't move until after the general economy has moved one way or the other. These include, unemployment rates, ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories, Commercial loans outstanding, Industrial loans,outstanding, The change in labor cost per unit of output, Change in the consumer price index for the service industry, and the average prime interest rate charged by banks. In evaluating an economy, after it's thought recovery, these lagging indicators can often confirm that the economy has in fact recovered.

Indicators are used by a variety of industries to predict the economic environment ahead, as well as compare past and present conditions. Although all the leading indicators have not turned positive, I am still sticking with the idea that we are heading for a recovery, and things will not get much worse, besides some of the lagging indicators which could persist 6 months or so after any recovery begins. This means that things like unemployment rate should start turning around by September or October of this year, while the stock market has already begun it's turnaround.

Making Home Affordable Again

2009-03-20T08:11:00.000-07:00

The United states foreclosure problem sure is a mess right now. There are some towns in Florida and California where 1 in every 60 homes are being foreclosed upon. If that doesn't yell "foreclosure crisis" nothing will. So I thought I'd make this blog post about some of the things a homeowner can do to hopefully be able to afford those Mortgage payments.

#1 Go to the New Government Site Makinghomeaffordable.gov
The government, and President Obama have announced this new site which is presented to help United States homeowners afford their mortgage payments. It will teach you everything you need to know in order to Make Your Home affordable. From teaching you how refinancing and restructuring of loans work, to providing you the data of the cheapest rates, resources to tell if you as a home owner are eligible for a restructuring of your loan through Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

#2 Consider refinancing your Mortgage:
Two days ago the Federal reserve announced that they will be buying billions of dollars in US Treasuries. What does this mean for you as a struggling homeowner? It means that the inetrest rates will continue to plummet. Some experts speculate that the Federal Reserve is trying to reduce the average mortgage rate to as low as 4%. That would be as low as it has ever been sicne we have been keeping record. This means if you are in a mortgage which is at a much higher rate, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9% you can refinance and reduce your monthly payments considerably. For every 1% the interest rate goes down on your mortgage, you will be paying $100 per month less per $100,000 loan amount. If you have a loan for $300,000 at a 7% inetrest rate, and refinance to 4%, you would probably save about $900 per month in payments. That is BIG!

#3 Don't over extend yourself
The most obvious, yet most overlooked rule is to live within your means. If you have any question about affording a new home, and the mortgage payments that go with it. Don't buy!

Remember to check out the the Making Home Affordable site in the link above. Also discuss this and all other financial issues at the Personal Finance Forum.

Economic Data List - Next Week

2009-03-19T12:26:00.000-07:00

Last week I gave the dates for this weeks key economic data readings, and when they would be announced. I have to say that The data out this week overall was better then expected. Unemployment numbers were not as bad as many experts had expected, The Philly Manufacturing index showed signs of a recovery, New Home start ups were up 22% from last month and The Fed is pumping another $1 Trillion into the economy. Overall, we had a pretty darn good week for being in the midst of the worse recession in 75 years. Acquisition rumors are also on the rise with Google possibly acquiring Expedia, and IBM placing a bid for Sun Microsystems. So what can we expect next week? Here is the list:

- Mar 23 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales
- Mar 25 8:30 AM Durable Goods Orders
- Mar 25 8:30 AM Durables, Ex-Transportation
- Mar 25 10:00 AM New Home Sales
- Mar 25 10:30 AM Crude Inventories
- Mar 26 8:30 AM Initial Claims
- Mar 26 8:30 AM Q4 GDP - Final
- Mar 26 8:30 AM GDP Price Index
- Mar 27 8:30 AM Personal Income
- Mar 27 8:30 AM Personal Spending
- Mar 27 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev

Let's all hope that the numbers are better then expected, and like Ben Bernanke says, we will be out of this recession by years end. Is this a good time to enter the stock market. In my Opinion YES!

Getting Web Site Traffic

2009-03-18T11:57:00.000-07:00

I thought I'd write a little post about the three main ways to get traffic to your website. Every webmaster's main goal is traffic. Without traffic, their products won't sell, sites won't grow, and ultimately they are wasting their time. Below are the 3 main ways one can get and keep traffic at a given website.

#1 Search Engine Traffic
Those webmasters who know how to perform search engine optimization on their sites are the ones who get free, targeted traffic for years. SEO is the single most important traffic related action any webmaster can undertake. If you are selling childrens books and your site comes up #1 in Google and other search engines when someone searches for "childrens books" then you are probably going to be very very wealthy in a short period of time. The problem is SEO is not all that easy. There are millions of competing webmasters trying to optimize their sites in the best possible way. You have to compete with these people, and be 2 steps ahead.

#2 Purchased Traffic
You can also Buy Web Site Traffic at fairly cheap rates. Rates can range from $1 to $10 per 1000 unique visitors depending on quality of the traffic and if it is targeted or not. You can also buy traffic via Google Adwords or other advertising platforms. Targeted traffic can certainly be worth the cost. I recommend you order small amounts of traffic and test how well your site is converting that traffic into sales.

#3 Keep Visitors Coming Back to Your Site
If you can hook your visitors after they come to your site once, then you are golden. Maybe you have a interesting blog, or forum which people get addicted to. If they have an incentive to come back to your site to participate in discussions or read your latest posts, they will be that much more likely to buy recommended products from your site.

Although the three above traffic methods are obvious, most webmasters do not understand how important each one is on an individual basis.